November 12, 2016
Madison Square Garden
New York, New York
Main Card on PPV:
Lightweight Champion Eddie Alvarez (28-4) +115 vs. Conor McGregor (20-3) -135
The "Underground King" is the only man to have been Bellator, and UFC Lightweight Champion. "Mystic Mac" is trying to become the only man to hold two UFC championships simultaneously. This is the 1st MMA Main Event ever in New York and this bout is all about history!
Alvarez has won 3 in a row including defeating Rafael dos Anjos by Mortal Kombat combination last July. The Philly striker has been training with the suddenly controversial Mark Henry, and the Ricardo Almeida killers. Ed is a competent grappler but he leaves room for opponents to escape when in top control. Eddie's striking is top notch. Alvarez has great movement on the feet and throws wicked combinations in tight.
The "Notorious" Conor McGregor is coming off of the rematch with Nate Diaz, and dropping back down to 155. For the 1st time. In the UFC. Anywho, McGregor is at a more logical weight and brings great scrambling, amazing accurate power boxing, and kicks from all angles. "Touch butt" style! 8-1 for Conor in the UFC including 6 finishes!
Well, Eddie embarrassed himself at the pre-fight press conference trying to battle the crowd that was booing him to hell. Alvarez is claiming he is not rattled for all this hype leading into the contest, but we think it is starting to get to him. The snapping cringe moments of Ed standing and lashing out at the crowd in anger claiming he's "half Irish," and unsure demeanor betray him. Finally, the beleaguered Alvarez screamed in anger and stormed off like a petulant child.
McGregor may have already won this bit of mind game but MMAFO is also surprised about how relaxed Conor seems coming into this contest as opposed to the Nate Diaz rematch.
If the "Notorious" one can test the chin of Eddie, and past footage says he can, Alvarez has struggled with getting hit by power punches in the past as well. The Philly fighter isn't going to be able to hold the Irishman down for long and when they stand he'll find the chin for a lone spot in history and his 2nd UFC belt!
WINNER-Conor McGregor by Rd.2 KO
Welterweight Champion Tyron Woodley (16-3) +170 vs. #3 Stephen Thompson (13-1) -200
Woodley is just like Alvarez in showing that though he claims the Boo's don't bother him, they clearly do. Tyron sitting up there on the dais scolding the crowd for not letting daddy Dana speak and pretending it's all good while he squirms and does that pretend professional imitation. Some of these guys like Woodley just cannot stand being the bad guy and even more humorously, have no idea why they are seen in a negative light as they keep digging themselves bigger and bigger holes.
Meanwhile, "Wonder Man" is sitting there silent, in his Sunday Bible school suit, smiling and readying for Saturday's coronation.
Thompson has won 7 fights in a row since losing his 2nd bout in the UFC. Stephen has turned into a striking machine without equal and the wrestling skills, adopted from brother-in-law Chris Weidman, have vastly improved making him a beast to try and take down. "Wonderboy" has never been finished as a professional Mixed Martial Artist.
"T-Wood" won 2 bouts in a row before he decided he was the #1 contender, and then proceeded to bench himself and cry until he got his way as other contenders were injured or booked. Woodley won the title with his patented overhand bolo and then announced he wanted "super fights" and "big paydays" without ever having defended the belt. And Ty wonders why nobody likes him?
Woodley is a controlling wrestler who if he doesn't get you with a big power shot, is going to fade and falter. Thompson will be able to keep distance as he uses kicks like jabs and frustrates Tyron. Woodley will become more and more reliant on securing a takedown and the opening will be exploited as Stephan finishes Ty for a new champion!
WINNER-Stephen Thompson by Rd.4 TKO
Strawweight Champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk (12-0) -400 vs. #2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-0) +355
"YouWanna Champion" is as gangster as they come. The undefeated Strawweight Champion is on top of her game and still made the (proper) decision of moving to a "big" camp like ATT where she will only improve with great strides. 115ers, be afraid. Jedrzejczyk is one of the most technical and deadly kickboxers in MMA today. Not just in the UFC. Not just in the women's division. She is durable with staunch takedown defense and fast fists and kicks in venomous combination form.
"KK" is a calm beauty, who exudes stillness before exploding with combinations in every form. Karolina, like Joanna, is a Polish kickboxer who has never been defeated.
Both of these lovely combatants are going to bomb in a meeting destined for exciting crazy action. Howver, its going to get serious real quick when Jedrzejczyk decides its business time. When "Joanna Champion" lands punches, she is looking to murder you. Kowalkiewicz is just in another land and about to face the Reaper. We not only see Joanna winning, but doing so in yet another famously bloody affair. Pray for "KK."
WINNER-Joanna Jedrzejczyk by Rd.4 TKO
#10 Donald Cerrone (31-7, 1) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (12-2)
Aaaaand of course, Kelvin Gastelum missed weight and the bout is canceled! Gastelum didn't even attempt the scale and has missed weight multiple times in his young career. "Cowboy" will be given his show money but will not compete on the card.
#3 Chris Weidman (13-1) -175 vs. Yoel Romero (12-1) +155
If ever there was a flaw in Weidman's game, MMAFO thought it would be durability. We saw signs as Chris progressed as the champion and then the dismantling by Luke Rockhold brought up a lot of questions. The Serra-Longo fighter is oft injured in training camp, and coming off such a brutal beatdown is sure to leave questions in the mind. However, Chris actually lobbied for MMA in New York and will he the hometown hero of the night! It's an evening of history and nothing will get Weidman more hyped up!
Romero is coming off of controversy as always. Whether its shitting his pants mid-bout, or the "stool gate" saga (i.e. blatant cheating) against Tim Kennedy, or the failed PED test which sidelined him for 6 months, "Gay Jesus" is bringing baggage. Yoel is unaffected as he has little idea what anyone is talking about (whether in his native tongue or not). "Soldier of God" is a powerful, powerful Olympic wrestler who is a genetic freak looking like a 24 year old at the age of 37. Everyone knows that the cat fades quickly in bouts trying to carry his massive frame.
Weidman will be able to grapple using Jiu-Jitsu and wrestling enough to stifle the best Romero can throw at him. Boxing, well, Chris is far better all the day long. There may be some shaky moments early, but Weidman will weather the tough spots, and grow as the fight progresses until Romero breaks (as he often does). Christopher raises his hands in Madison Square in a feel good moment.
WINNER-Chris Weidman by Decision
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#2 Miesha Tate (18-6) -165 vs. #9 Raquel Pennington (8-5) +145
"Cupcake" Tate likes to get nearly murdered in her fights before staging a big comeback after taking an unholy amount of damage. Miesha is one of the toughest MMA competitors of all time and is looking for a big comeback after losing her title.
"Rocky" is a decent boxer but very average and no grappling skills to speak of. Pennington is very durable and difficult to put away.
MMAFO can almost guarantee that Miesha will get hurt in this bout early and seemingly close to death. But, Tate will eventually take over the grappling exchanges at the very least keeping Raquel honest, before unloading more power in her strikes that her opponent suspects. Miesha does have power in her boxing it just takes her a minute to get there. Enough intelligent fighting and Tate is successful on a hard fought decision.
WINNER-Miesha Tate by Decision
Prelims on FS1:
#3 Frankie Edgar (20-5-1) -340 vs. #9 Jeremy Stephens (25-12) +280
Poor forgotten Frankie. Edgar lost to Aldo (for the 2nd time) and now he's just floating in the froth. Frank is a pro's pro so you know he'll come in shape and on point, but the desire has got to be waining. You just see the guy on the pre fight hype shows and he seems annoyed to even be filmed.
"Who da fook is dat guy?" rang out to the heavens and Jeremy was immortalized in embarrassment after the UFC 205 press conference debacle. Stephens is always a big hitter with power for days but he's the consummate "gatekeeper" to the stars.
This is the bout that Frankie always wins and Jeremy always loses. Edgar uses movement and faints better than about anyone in MMA and can touch up Stephens while cruising to the judges nod. Its another Edgar win that doesn't move the needle and leaves the Ricardo Almeida student in limbo.
WINNER-Frankie Edgar by Decision
#3 Khabib Nurmagomedov (23-0) -310 vs. Michael Johnson (18-10) +255
"Nurmy" has won 7 in a row and has never been defeated in 8 years of professional competition. Khabib is the unstoppable wrestler and nobody has come close against him thus far. The Russian star beat Rafael dos Anjos before he went on his title run, and really hasn't beaten anyone else of name. Nurmagomedov seems to be living off some of that Fedor mysterious aura thing that gives people pause. Remember that Khabib's return bout in April was not pretty.
"MJ" is rebuilding after losing a close decision to Beneil Dariush and then getting fucking stomped by Nate Diaz in '15. 2016 has been kinder as a stellar looking Johnson roared back with a dominating striking effort that felled then surging Dustin Poirier. Mike likes to use his length keeping range while striking and sneaking in a power punch.
"Nurmy" is so relentless is almost easy for him to amass two rounds on the cards before you realize it. Johnson has improved his takedown defense but he is going for a ride, often, and won't have an answer for it. You'll see the frustration on Mike's face as he eats canvas for 15 minutes.
WINNER-Khabib Nurmagomedov by Decision
Rafael Natal (21-7-1) -155 vs. Tim Boetsch (19-10) +135
Aw geez, these two guys. Neither of these 205ers do much to get one excited. Boetsch ended a 3 fight skid last out and his 1st win in two years. The "Barbarian" always has his berserker power and all but you see the belly getting bigger on the 35 year old, and he doesn't seem all that motivated at this point in his waining career.
"Sapo" will go on short runs in the UFC but you always know he is limited and fights at a steady but glacial pace. He's okay.
Natal is well rounded and all but he can't take a big hitter quitter to the dome from the savage. The "Barbarian" hammers down and Natal fails at the takedown leaving him wide open.
Upset Pick WINNER-Tim Boetsch by Rd.2 KO
Vicente Luque (10-5-1) -115 vs. Belal Muhammad (10-1) -105
Belal is a fun fighter to watch but needs seasoning so its nice to see him be so active. Muhammad is a tough striker
Luque is a striking submission fighter who doesn't employ a lot of defense.
Vicente can't win this striking but he'll try. Luque will get out struck on the feet and watch for Muhammad to sneak in some round winning takedowns as well. "Remember the Name."
WINNER-Belal Muhammad by Decision
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Jim Miller (27-8) +135 vs. Thiago Alves (21-10) -155
Alves is coming to the Lightweight division. Some day. Thiago, who recently fired diet guru Mike Dolce, missed weight coming in at 162.6 lbs. The bout had to be changed to a Catchweight fight at 163 lbs., and Miller had to add weight to make the bout official weighing in at 157.6lbs.
Now, Thiago hasn't fought often because of injuries or failed attempts to change weight classes, but he is a powerful kickboxer who is very tough to take down.
Miller can do it all but the years seem to be slowly taking their toll. Even so, Jim is a grinder who chops up opponents in close with standing elbows and pushes a relentless pace even as an older vet.
Nobody has any idea what is going on in Thiago's life and just how can you pick this guy here? He misses weight again, fired the guy that was helping him, and rarely competes anymore. Miller is past his prime but a far more reliable pick who has gutted things out against sterner stuff.
MMAFO dares you to go to the "Pitbull's" Instagram account and don't laugh at all his workout/training pics. Fat motherfucker.
Upset Pick WINNER-Jim Miller by Decision
Liz Carmouche (10-5) +155 vs. Katlyn Chookagian (8-0) -175
Liz is a good fighter but undersized and not great. She relies on wrestling and has never really evolved her game. The "Girl-rilla" needs to be the bully gaining all important takedowns and control, control, control.
"Chooky" is a kickboxer adapting to MMA who has more range and offensive skills to bring to the table.Katlyn can keep Liz at bay with a bevy of kicks and score more with punches to win rounds but she must stay off her back. Chookagian cannot wrestle with the more powerful and more skilled grappler in Carmouche.
We feel more comfortable with the veteran who we know can be effective in her skill to win in the Octagon. Liz will this her fight and win a lackluster match.
Upset Pick WINNER-Liz Carmouche by Decision
UFC 205: New York City Start Times
Main Card on Pay-Per-View: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
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