Friday, November 18, 2016

UFC Fight Night 100 Bader vs. Nogueira 2: Picks, Prognostications + Odds


Main Card on FS1:

#4 Ryan Bader (21-5) -345 vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (22-7) +315 2 

"Darth" Bader defeated "Minotouro" in 2010 and "Lil Nog" has only aged 6 years since battling father time and a bevy of injuries. This is only happening because Alexander Gustafsson got injured so why would another meeting go any different now? Spoiler, it won't.

WINNER-Ryan Bader by Rd.4 TKO



#9 Thomas Almeida (21-1) -315 vs. Albert Morales (6-0-1) +285

The modern Chute Boxe killer suffered his 1st professional loss by knockout to #1 contender Cody Garbrandt in May. Almeida is a stellar striker who got caught in the high stakes game of throwing hands. Tommy isn't going to falter this time as he regains his confidence with a highlight reel finish.

WINNER-Thomas Almeida by Rd.2 TKO

#3 Claudia Gadelha (13-2) -430 vs. Cortney Casey (6-3) +380

Claudia lost to Strawweight Champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the 2nd time and is now treading water until the queen missteps. Gadelha is an amazing grappler but she had an ugly split with Nova Uniao and will be coming in with a new camp.

CC has won her last 2 bouts by 1st round finishes and is looking like a prospect at 125. "Cast Iron" Casey is early into her career but the potential is there.

Cortney may have future success in the division but, not here. Casey enjoys pulling guard but doing so against Claudia is going to be a tall order. Gadelha is another top tier fighter stuck below the champ like Joe Benavidez or John Dodson who just doesn't have anywhere to go. That frustration will be taken out on the upstart.

WINNER-Claudia Gadelha by Decision

Thales Leites (26-6) -155 vs. Krzysztof Jotko (18-1) +145

Jotko is coming to eat your soul and is 8 years younger than the established vet. Thales returned to the UFC as a newly minted striker but he's a Jiu-Jitsu ace. This is the Pole's time and Leites passes the torch.

Upset Pick WINNER-Krzysztof Jotko by Decision

Warlley Alves (10-1) +185 vs. Kamaru Usman (8-1) -200

"Marty The Nigerian Nightmare" has won 7 in a row and trains with the Blackzilians. 

Alves is the prospect who ran into the "Prospect Killer" Bryan Barberena in May. 

Both of these guys are promising Welterweights with a lot of upside. Warlley will need all of his Jiu-Jitsu skills to combat the more effective and consistent Usman. 

WINNER-Kamaru Usman by Decision

Sergio Moraes (10-2-1) -170 vs. Zak Ottow (14-3) +150

    Michael Graves was supposed to be in this spot but he was arrested for misdemeanor battery in early October for allegedly punching his fiancee. That kids, is how you fuck up your career. Interesting that fellow woman beaters Anthony Johnson, Abel Trujillo, Michael Johnson, and Alex Nicholson are all still employed by the UFC which claims it doesn't tolerate such behavior. Okay, soapbox over. 

The "Panther" is a smiling nice guy who has gone 4-1-1 backed by his Jiu-Jitsu and positivity.

Zak has won 5 in a row and got a big win in his debut defeating the declining Josh Burkman. A close fight but we're still on Sergio's side until he fails us.

WINNER-Sergio Moraes by Decision?

MMAFO hasn't forgotten burtwatson4real.com!
Prelims on FS1:

Cezar Ferreira (10-5) +185 vs. Jack Hermansson (14-2) -200

Cezar has a jaw made of tissue paper. Ferrari has been finding some success avoiding the fight.

The Swede has won 9 in a row and is rolling (whad up Burt Watson!). This is the "Joker's" all day.

WINNER-Jack Hermansson by Rd.2 TKO

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (14-3) -155 vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov (18-4) +135

"Pezao" is a awight and who is Gazimuriagehimbaddaad again?


WINNER-Marcos de Lima by Decision

Johnny Eduardo (27-10) -155 vs. Manny Gamburyan (15-9, 1) +135

TIL Manny is still a UFC fighter. And at the tender age of 87. MMAFO never cared for the guy.

WINNER-Johnny Eduardo by Decision

Luis Henrique (9-2, 1) -260 vs. Christian Colombo (8-1-1) +240

Big nobodies here.

WINNER-Luis Henrique by Decision

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Pedro Munhoz (12-2) +165 vs. #10 Justin Scoggins (11-2) -175

We liked Justin until he badly missed weight and then went on social media blasting Ian McCall for not taking the fight. Try being professional kiddo. He's got a lot of work to do to earn back MMAFO's love.

WINNER-Justin Scoggins by Decision

Francimar Barroso (18-5) -150 vs. Darren Stewart (7-0) +140

"Bodao" is welcoming the "Dentist" to the UFC. 

WINNER-Francimar Barroso by Decision

UFC Fight Night 100 Start Times:
Main Card on FS1: 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT
Prelims on FS1: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT

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