UFC 207 Nunes vs. Rousey: Picks, Prognostications + Odds

December 30, 2016

T-Mobile Arena

Las Vegas, Nevada

     What an unbelievable mess. Rousey is making her big comeback, yet she won't do ANY media to promote the event. This is the type of thing Conor McGregor got pulled from a UFC card. Ronda's management team is part of WME IMG, which now owns the UFC. Conflict of interest much? At any rate, the emotionally fragile Rousey child, has made weight for the event and will be there (unless somebody hurts her lil' feelings and she takes her ball and runs home yet again). 

Main Card on PPV:

Bantamweight Champion Amanda Nunes (13-4) +130 vs. #2 Ronda Rousey (12-1) -140

The "Lioness" is very likable and a good person. Seeing her and girlfriend Nina Ansaroff together is adorable and more should have been made about Nunes being the 1st openly gay champ for the UFC. Amanda has brutal power early in her bouts but she fades quickly.

Rousey is in a media blackout and there are many questions about where her fragile mind is at (and how about just how unprofessional this supposed girl hero is acting) but the former queen matches up quite nicely with the current champ. Nunes has struggled greatly with her cardio and the longer this fight goes, the more if favors Ronda. The "Rowdy" one has no doubt trained her ass off for the strong striker after the dismal effort against Holly Holm, and that is all Amanda has to offer. If Ronda can avoid those power shots this time around, she'll be able to let Nunes wear herself out before tapping her on the ground to reclaim her crown where Amanda is quite vulnerable. Ronda will not play the striking game with Nunes opting for safety until she can secure the fight ending takedown. She only needs one.

WINNER-Ronda Rousey by Rd.3 Submission

Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz (22-1) -210 vs. #4 Cody Garbrandt (10-0) +190

MMAFO cannot remember a time when a fighter has so dominated (get it?) an opponents headspace. Cody just does not understand the games Dominick is playing and Garbrandt has looked like an absolute fool leading up to this contest. Mental games are very important in fighting and Cody really is a mental midget. Dominick has had Garbrandt on tilt long before they were even scheduled to compete and this is going to lead to a bevy of mistakes.

"No Love" is a young powerful striker with good (not great) skills, but he'll need to connect and keep his cool when things are going bad. That isn't likely to happen. The "Dominator" is going to dance around him frustrating the challenger and forcing him into bad positions. The knee tap takedown will be there all day and though Cruz doesn't do much once on the ground, it stacks up points for him. Garbrandt will need to land that lucky punch which is highly unlikely as the rounds continue to pile up against him and he goes into deep waters for the 1st time in his career. Cody lost this bout many months ago. This may be one of Dominick's easiest title defenses as he Cruz's (ha) to yet another win not he cards.

WINNER-Dominick Cruz by Decision

#2 Fabricio Werdum (21-6-1) vs. #3 Cain Velasquez (14-2)

This Heavyweight contest has been cancelled as "Mr. Glass," or "TH Sea Level" Cain was pulled from the fight by the athletic commission due to health concerns.

#2 TJ Dillashaw (13-3) -240 vs. John Lineker (29-7) +220

Lineker cannot make weight with any sort of consistency, but he's "bombing on common sense," like Ice Cube. Dude can punch holes through adamantium, and has a pretty good chin when he's standing in close and trading bones.

"Bang's Boy" is a more technical fighter, with crafty footwork and wrestling skills in his back pocket.

We all know how this goes. Either TJ avoids the bomb from Lineker and shows how superior he is as an evolved MMA fighter, or he gets caught and disintegrates. MMAFO doesn't bank on people with only a puncher's chance and believe "Dilly" makes John look silly en route to a dominant win on the cards.

WINNER-TJ Dillashaw by Decision

Dong Hyun Kim (21-3-1, 1) -140 vs. Tarec Saffiedine (16-5) +130

The "Donger" is back after 13 months off. The "Stun Gun" is ultra-exciting, willing to throw anything at anytime while hunting for fight night bonuses. This is also a liability as he gets out of control and leaves himself open for deadly counters. The guy is still a creative and good striker.

The "Sponge" ain't goin' to change. Tarec will throw a ton of leg kicks, strike a bit with accuracy though without power, and some head kicks. There isn't ever any change in Saffiedine's game.

The "safe" pick here is easily Tarec. You know you'll get a technical cautious approach from the Belgiun, who has honed his standard game at Tristar. The "Donger" will have to put Saffiedine away to win and that is not easy to do. Tarec wins on points by slowing the bout down and winning at least two rounds.

Upset Pick WINNER-Tarec Saffiedine by Decision

Louis Smolka (11-2) +125 vs. Ray Borg (9-2) -135

Smolka is a talented but unlikeable prick. Louis can look amazing like when he defeated Ben Nguyen, or come in overconfident and get Upset like against Brandon Moreno last out. The guy is a juvenile ass on social media but he's tough as nails and a great scrambler.

"The Tazmexican Devil" is also a grappling wizard but he has struggled against upper level Flyweights like Justin Scoggins and Dustin Ortiz. MMAFO believes Smolka is an upper tier 125er and keeping with the pattern, will win on points.

Upset Pick WINNER-Louis Smolka by Decision

* Ray Borg missed weight coming in at 129.5. Borg was pulled from a fight against Ian McCall in September because he became sick during a bad weight cut. It seems Ray did not learn a lesson.

Oink, oink, fatty.

Prelims on FS1:

Johny Hendricks (17-5) +120 vs. #9 Neil Magny (18-5) -130

Its hard to think of a MMA fighter who has fallen from grace as hard and fast as Hendricks. "Pigg Rigg" has struggled mightily with weight cuts and in cage performances, and now showed up for fight week speaking with slurred speech to the press and acting very erratic. The question has gone from, "Can Johny regain some of his former glory," to "Is this guy okay?" Talking about retirement and freezing in recent fights are not good signs.

Magny has become a real contender going 10-2 since his career turnaround in '14. Neil stumbled last out against Lorenz Larkin but everyone can get caught every now and again. Magny is a lanky fella with a long jab, good wrestling, and endurance for days.

How in the hell can you pick Hendricks? The guy might win, but with all the question marks surrounding every part of his being, there is no way you can trust him. Magny also has a massive size advantage in this and avoiding the big punch we haven't seen from Johny in some time, Neil should roll picking up steam and points as the bout progresses.

WINNER-Neil Magny by Decision

* Unsurprisingly, Johny Hendricks missed weight yet again, coming in at 173.5 and looked near death. Jeezus dude, get your shit together.

Antonio Carlos Junior (6-2) -135 vs. Marvin Vettori (11-2) +125

ACJ is an ATT grappler who has not made any noise in the UFC going 3-2-1. "Cara de Sepato" needs to do ground work to be competitive. 

The 23 year old Vettori has won 6 in a row including his UFC debut in August. The Italian is a grappler as well, but he also possesses some striking skills which ACJ does not. 

We're not sure why people are so up on ACJ. He's not that impressive while Marvin is some new young blood and has a lot of upside. We're feeling the young wolf to out work the Brazilian in a close outing.

Upset Pick WINNER-Marvin Vettori by Decision

Mike Pyle (27-12-1) +160 vs. Alex Garcia (13-3) -170

"The Dominican Nightmare" is a Tristar fighter who brings crazy natural athleticism and is decently well rounded. 

"Quicksand" is a beloved mulleted veteran, who let's face it, isn't so durable anymore. Still, Pyle is crafty as they come and has found dad strength in his latter career to knock fools out. If Mike decides to play the ground game he has a big advantage.

It seems unlikely that Pyle will be able to take the far younger Garcia down and that could spell trouble. Mike is just far too fragile these days and has been finished by strikes in 3 of his lat 4 losses. Garcia will find a way to hurt "Quicksand" before putting him away for a much needed stoppage finish.

WINNER-Alex Garcia by Rd.2 TKO

Fight Pass Prelims:

Brandon Thatch (11-4) -170 vs. Niko Price (8-0) +160

Remember when Thatch was going to be a force at 170? What the hell happened? Presently, Brandon is on a 3 fight losing skid and seems unable to adapt to opponents mid-fight. Thatch is a striker and yet he was massively outstruck by Siyar Bahadurzada last out. "Rukus" is a huge Welterweight and is a devil in the clinch, you just have to wonder why this guy has fallen apart so badly. 

ATT's "Hybrid," is an energetic undefeated fighter and he will take the fight to Thatch. Price is all offense and is making his promotional debut. 

Even after all the negativity, we like Brandon here. Niko just doesn't have any experience at the level Thatch has competed, and if ever there was a "get-right fight," it is this one. Thatch should start a "Rukus" by catching the over aggressive Price coming in.

WINNER-Brandon Thatch by Rd.2 TKO

Alex Oliveira (16-3-1) +100 vs. Tim Means (26-7-1) -110

The "Brazilian Cowboy" was a fan favorite until he grossly missed weight in his last contest against Will Brooks, and then continued to act unprofessional behaving like a petulant child and not accepting blame for his actions. Its absolutely infuriating.

MMAFO is so angrily biased at this point against assholes who can't properly cut weight that we can't see clearly. Keep that in mind as we pick the "Dirty Bird" to annihilate Oliveira with prejudice.

WINNER-Tim Means by Rd.2 TKO