January 28, 2017
Pepsi Center
Denver, Colorado
Main Card on FOX:
#2 Valentina Shevchenko (13-2) -150 vs. #4 Julianna Pena (8-2) +130
The "Bullet" is underrated but people are starting to come around to her technical striking, and solid footwork. Valentina showed against Holly Holm that she is better than most of the striking ladies at 135 when she baffled the boxer and ran game. Shevchenko is a counter striker which tends to keep her volume attack low which is notable.
"Resting Bitch Face" is quite well rounded and has determination in spades. Pena likes to aggressively attack her opponents with overwhelming force and employ her grappling on the mat. Julianna's weakness is that she is very hittable and tends to get sloppy out there over extending herself. Pena trains out of the Sikjitsu camp which is one of the worst gyms out there. She does have some of the best looking stems in all of MMA, so there's that.
Pena's cocky demeanor is going to be her undoing. She believes she is owed the world and already earned a title shot while Shevchenko is willing to put in the work and fight whoever is put in front of her. Mental approaches aside, Val should be able to catch Julie coming in time and time again, and with her good takedown defense, should be able to win the points battle though she won't put Pena away, and the worry comes in late as Juliana has a gas tank for days while Valentina can fade. Even so, the percentages lean in favor Peruvian to earn the judges nod.
WINNER-Valentina Shevchenko by Decision
The "Bullet" is underrated but people are starting to come around to her technical striking, and solid footwork. Valentina showed against Holly Holm that she is better than most of the striking ladies at 135 when she baffled the boxer and ran game. Shevchenko is a counter striker which tends to keep her volume attack low which is notable.
"Resting Bitch Face" is quite well rounded and has determination in spades. Pena likes to aggressively attack her opponents with overwhelming force and employ her grappling on the mat. Julianna's weakness is that she is very hittable and tends to get sloppy out there over extending herself. Pena trains out of the Sikjitsu camp which is one of the worst gyms out there. She does have some of the best looking stems in all of MMA, so there's that.
Pena's cocky demeanor is going to be her undoing. She believes she is owed the world and already earned a title shot while Shevchenko is willing to put in the work and fight whoever is put in front of her. Mental approaches aside, Val should be able to catch Julie coming in time and time again, and with her good takedown defense, should be able to win the points battle though she won't put Pena away, and the worry comes in late as Juliana has a gas tank for days while Valentina can fade. Even so, the percentages lean in favor Peruvian to earn the judges nod.
WINNER-Valentina Shevchenko by Decision
#6 Donald Cerrone (32-7, 1) -155 vs. Jorge Masvidal (31-11) +135
"Cowboy" is on another roll winning 4 in a row and looking to put away another Welterweight contender. Masvidal feels slighted by Cerrone ever since losing two bouts because his opponent was taken as replacements for Donald's fights. Jorge, feels under appreciated and disrespected.
"Cowboy" has brought more power and durability with him to 170 and always has that stellar kickboxing style and submissions in his back pocket if'n things go to the ground.
"Gamebred" is similar in that he is a striker, though he leans more toward boxing, but doesn't have the finishing power of his opponent.
What could be interesting here, is that both fighters tend to get tentative though at different times in the bout. Cerrone starts slow but picks up as he gets more comfortable, while Masvidal starts quick, but slows as time progresses. You've got to believe Donny is the better striker but he doesn't use the takedowns to keep foes honest while Jorge will sneak some in to score points and keep you guessing. It should be a close affair as both men are happy to war and the bad blood should add to the volume. The percentages lean toward "Cowboy" who has competed at a much higher level his entire career, and we have seen quit in Masvidal though he is very hard to put away. It's gonna be a slobber knocker as a renewed Cerrone shows more focus and a better game plane backed by the Jackson-Wink camp for an exciting 15 minute victory.
WINNER-Donald Cerrone by Decision
#8 Andrei Arlovski (25-13, 1) +325 vs. Francis Ngannou (9-1) -400
Why does the UFC hate Arlovski? Placing the 85 year old in a fight against the murderous power of the up and coming 30 year old Ngannou, is unfair. This is the UFC putting the veteran to bed to promote the new young talent (sound familiar Mr. Penn?).
Best of luck Andrei but his improved defense and boxing skills will not matter when Francis connects and decapitates him. This could very well be the moment that puts Arlovski out to pasture.
WINNER-Francis Ngannou by Rd.1 KO
Alex Caceres (12-9) +130 vs. Jason Knight (15-2) -150
"Bruce Leeroy" is exciting at all times but he takes such unnecessary chances. The guy is good everywhere but his creativity leads to a lot of mistakes out there.
Knight is far more consistent and has won 10 of 11, the lone loss being out grappled by grappler supreme, Tatsuya Kawajiri. Jason has a nice vicious streak in him and has grappling for days.
How can you realistically side with Alex. You just never know what you are going to get from Caceres and he has made it very known that he is not long for MMA. An eye to the future is good for a man, but not for a fighter. Knight is all about the business at hand he's not going to get caught in a scramble with a sub, and Alex doesn't have the power to worry him. Jason should feel confident enough to throw his weight upon "Bruce Leeroy" winning a decision against the highly durable Caceres.
WINNER-Jason Knight by Decision
"Bruce Leeroy" is exciting at all times but he takes such unnecessary chances. The guy is good everywhere but his creativity leads to a lot of mistakes out there.
Knight is far more consistent and has won 10 of 11, the lone loss being out grappled by grappler supreme, Tatsuya Kawajiri. Jason has a nice vicious streak in him and has grappling for days.
How can you realistically side with Alex. You just never know what you are going to get from Caceres and he has made it very known that he is not long for MMA. An eye to the future is good for a man, but not for a fighter. Knight is all about the business at hand he's not going to get caught in a scramble with a sub, and Alex doesn't have the power to worry him. Jason should feel confident enough to throw his weight upon "Bruce Leeroy" winning a decision against the highly durable Caceres.
WINNER-Jason Knight by Decision
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Nate Marquardt (35-16-2) +130 vs. Sam Alvey (29-8-0, 1) -150
Ugh, Marquardt. The guy still has all that experience and can shine in moments, but he is so shop worn and will crumble at a moments notice.
Alvey is never going to be as complete a fighter as Nate but he can bomb and crush men.
We just don't believe Nate can take a punch from a big hitter like Sam. Alvey can be very tentative and fades, but if he can land a couple of big punches, we just can't see Marquardt remaining standing.
WINNER-Sam Alvey by Rd.1 KO
Ugh, Marquardt. The guy still has all that experience and can shine in moments, but he is so shop worn and will crumble at a moments notice.
Alvey is never going to be as complete a fighter as Nate but he can bomb and crush men.
We just don't believe Nate can take a punch from a big hitter like Sam. Alvey can be very tentative and fades, but if he can land a couple of big punches, we just can't see Marquardt remaining standing.
WINNER-Sam Alvey by Rd.1 KO
#5 Raphael Assunção (23-5) -145 vs. #9 Aljamain Sterling (12-1) +125
So, why is this bout not on the main card? Both of these cats are highly respected Bantamweights yet they take a back seat to the likes of Caceres versus Knight! WTF! Anywho, both of these excellent competitors are looking to get off the schneid and back into the title hunt so they are hungry and looking to win big.
"Aljo" shit the bed last out against Bryan Caraway. Sterling talked a lot of shit and then got taught a lesson as "Mr. Tate" beat him at his own grappling game. The "Funkmaster" is a wrestling whiz but he still hasn't got it all together in his striking as he basically has kicks and not much else.
The Brazilian lost to TJ Dillashaw in July after being gone with a myriad of injuries that shelved him for 2 years! A little rust is understandable and even more so against "Killashaw." In the last 5 years though, Raphael has really come into his prime going 7-1 and really rounding out his entire game. Assuncao is solid everywhere and has great takedown defense.
Aljamain's best shot at this contest is to keep Raph at range with his kicks, but that is unlikely. Assuncao is the much better boxer and he throws at a higher clip with the gas tank that "Aljo" lacks. The UFC is definitely throwing the big guns at Sterling because of his bold statements against the company and rough contract negotiations. MMAFO doesn't fault him for that but this is a match made to defeat him.
WINNER-Raphael Assuncao by Decision
So, why is this bout not on the main card? Both of these cats are highly respected Bantamweights yet they take a back seat to the likes of Caceres versus Knight! WTF! Anywho, both of these excellent competitors are looking to get off the schneid and back into the title hunt so they are hungry and looking to win big.
"Aljo" shit the bed last out against Bryan Caraway. Sterling talked a lot of shit and then got taught a lesson as "Mr. Tate" beat him at his own grappling game. The "Funkmaster" is a wrestling whiz but he still hasn't got it all together in his striking as he basically has kicks and not much else.
The Brazilian lost to TJ Dillashaw in July after being gone with a myriad of injuries that shelved him for 2 years! A little rust is understandable and even more so against "Killashaw." In the last 5 years though, Raphael has really come into his prime going 7-1 and really rounding out his entire game. Assuncao is solid everywhere and has great takedown defense.
Aljamain's best shot at this contest is to keep Raph at range with his kicks, but that is unlikely. Assuncao is the much better boxer and he throws at a higher clip with the gas tank that "Aljo" lacks. The UFC is definitely throwing the big guns at Sterling because of his bold statements against the company and rough contract negotiations. MMAFO doesn't fault him for that but this is a match made to defeat him.
WINNER-Raphael Assuncao by Decision
Bobby Nash (8-1) +135 vs. Li Jingliang (11-4) -155
"Jing-a-ling-a-ling" is a fun fighter who will bring the attack and has power in his hands. MMAFO has this (not racist) thing about Chinese fighters in that they are just far behind the rest of the world in MMA. Li doesn't have good footwork relying on his speed and power to guide him.
The American comes in on a 6 fight winning streak to make his promotional debut and is a finisher on the feet or on the ground.
This is a coin-flip match but again, percentages lean toward Nash though it will be close.
Upset Pick WINNER-Bobby Nash by Decision?
"Jing-a-ling-a-ling" is a fun fighter who will bring the attack and has power in his hands. MMAFO has this (not racist) thing about Chinese fighters in that they are just far behind the rest of the world in MMA. Li doesn't have good footwork relying on his speed and power to guide him.
The American comes in on a 6 fight winning streak to make his promotional debut and is a finisher on the feet or on the ground.
This is a coin-flip match but again, percentages lean toward Nash though it will be close.
Upset Pick WINNER-Bobby Nash by Decision?
Luis Henrique da Silva (12-1) +180 vs. Jordan Johnson (6-0) -220
"Frankenstein" seems to really surprise opponents with his power and damn the guy can take a punch! Silva doesn't have defense of any sort but he's fun.
JJ is getting his 1st shot at the big time and is a grinder who wants to make things ugly. Johnson's wrestling is so strong, he has numerous ways to control his opponents for a long 15 minute drudge.
Luis could lose every moment of this bout up until the moment he finally catches Jordan with a big bomb. Not something you really want to bet on, but the potential is there. More likely, JJ wrestlefucks Silva for the full 15.
WINNER-Jordan Johnson by Decision
"Frankenstein" seems to really surprise opponents with his power and damn the guy can take a punch! Silva doesn't have defense of any sort but he's fun.
JJ is getting his 1st shot at the big time and is a grinder who wants to make things ugly. Johnson's wrestling is so strong, he has numerous ways to control his opponents for a long 15 minute drudge.
Luis could lose every moment of this bout up until the moment he finally catches Jordan with a big bomb. Not something you really want to bet on, but the potential is there. More likely, JJ wrestlefucks Silva for the full 15.
WINNER-Jordan Johnson by Decision
Eric Spicely (9-1) -115 vs. Alessio Di Chirico (10-1) -105
"The Spice Rack" has but stumbled once in his career getting caught in a choke to Sam Alvey in his debut. Eric wants to ground his opponents and look for the submission.
ATT's Italian also shares a single loss from his UFC debut, and is well rounded though not too dangerous anywhere. Alessio is the more natural athlete of the two and can stymy Spicely where he's strong, and then strike enough to take the majority of the minutes in each round.
WINNER-Alessio Di Chirico by Decision
"The Spice Rack" has but stumbled once in his career getting caught in a choke to Sam Alvey in his debut. Eric wants to ground his opponents and look for the submission.
ATT's Italian also shares a single loss from his UFC debut, and is well rounded though not too dangerous anywhere. Alessio is the more natural athlete of the two and can stymy Spicely where he's strong, and then strike enough to take the majority of the minutes in each round.
WINNER-Alessio Di Chirico by Decision
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (14-4-1) -175 vs. Jeremy Kimball (14-5) +155
"Pezao" is a striker who will live or die in the 1st round. Homie has a lot of power but not the acumen to fight a long fight. There are submissions in his toolbox though its not often seen.
The wild man Jeremy Kimball is making his debut on a 4 fight run. Kimball is going to attack with reckless abandon doing whatever he can to get the win, even if it means taking risky chances with a low percentage of success.
Jeremy is going to make it fun, but his tendency to leave himself available to be hit suits Marcos well. Lima's power may just stop Kimball in his tracks as we feel he is quite open to get caught while risking it all.
WINNER-Marcos Rogerio de Lima by Rd.1 TKO
* De Lima missed weight by 3.6 lbs. and will forfeit 20% of his purse.
"Pezao" is a striker who will live or die in the 1st round. Homie has a lot of power but not the acumen to fight a long fight. There are submissions in his toolbox though its not often seen.
The wild man Jeremy Kimball is making his debut on a 4 fight run. Kimball is going to attack with reckless abandon doing whatever he can to get the win, even if it means taking risky chances with a low percentage of success.
Jeremy is going to make it fun, but his tendency to leave himself available to be hit suits Marcos well. Lima's power may just stop Kimball in his tracks as we feel he is quite open to get caught while risking it all.
WINNER-Marcos Rogerio de Lima by Rd.1 TKO
* De Lima missed weight by 3.6 lbs. and will forfeit 20% of his purse.
Early Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Alexandre Pantoja (16-2) +105 vs. Eric Shelton (10-2) -125
Both of these men have potential to be players at Flyweight but this comes down to where these men are currently at in their respective games. Pantonja's game is more complete at this stage and he should take at least 2 of the 3 scheduled rounds.
Upset Pick WINNER-Alexandre Pantoja by Decision
Both of these men have potential to be players at Flyweight but this comes down to where these men are currently at in their respective games. Pantonja's game is more complete at this stage and he should take at least 2 of the 3 scheduled rounds.
Upset Pick WINNER-Alexandre Pantoja by Decision
Jason Gonzalez (10-3) +125 vs. J.C. Cottrell (17-3) -145
"Gonzo" didn't get to show much in his debut as he was KO'd in 1:45, but he throws a lot in the kickboxing style and has decent Jiu-Jitsu. Enough Jitz at least to defend himself on the canvas where Cottrell is best, and garner points to win on the cards.
Upset Pick WINNER-Jason Gonzalez by Decision
"Gonzo" didn't get to show much in his debut as he was KO'd in 1:45, but he throws a lot in the kickboxing style and has decent Jiu-Jitsu. Enough Jitz at least to defend himself on the canvas where Cottrell is best, and garner points to win on the cards.
Upset Pick WINNER-Jason Gonzalez by Decision
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