October 28, 2017
Ginásio do Ibirapuera
São Paulo, Brazil
Main Card on FS1:
Lyoto Machida (22-7) +135 vs. #9 Derek Brunson (17-5) -155
Enter the Dragon: Sans Two-Year Suspension for &-Keto-DHEA. Machida accepted the harsh punishment of an 18 month suspension, and at the age of 39, Lyoto is making a final run in the UFC for love of the game. "The Dragon" is returning on a two-fight losing skid dropping his last outings to Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero (who is a true cheater). Machida's pick and peck karate style is predicated upon his speed and accuracy. Speed tends to be the 1st to go with age but Lyoto has been elusive and taken very little punishment over his career.
The enigmatic Brunson came over to the UFC in Strikeforce in 2012, and has amassed an 8-3 record while establishing a reputation as a fighter who loses the "big ones" and doesn't always fight to his strengths. Derek has only gone to the judges twice (1-1) and prefers the kill or be killed finish.
We've seen Brunson shit the bed numerous times in the cage and become awed (like against Anderson Silva) into inactivity. Machida does enough buzzing around and sniping Derek to win a decisive if uneventful judges nod.
Upset Pick WINNER-Lyoto Machida by Decision
#3 Demian Maia (25-7) +140 vs. Colby Covington (12-1) -160
Maia didn't exactly have an inspiring performance in his title shot against Tyron Woodley in July, and now the 39 year old Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist faces and up-and-comer representing the future of the division.
CCC hasn't made many fans or friends along his MMA journey, he has established himself as a contender with a 7-1 promotional record. "Chaos" has a stalwart grinding wrestling game that doesn't get fans out of their seats, and is now pretending he is a natural shit talker which comes across as contrived and unnatural. Fighters who have to fake a personality to try and garner attention are the worst type of people. Everyone is trying to imitate Conor McGregor instead of letting their natural personalities play out whatever they may be. Take one Rory MacDonald. He has never changed and now embraces that people find him to be a serial killer with a sly nod and wink. Covington is a fake. A fake with great wrestling skills, training out of ATT, and claiming 170 champ Tyron Woodley is the fraud.
Can Maia hang with the next generation, or is it nearing the time for retirement talk? Has Demian finally figured out the cardio issue to allow him to truly go for submissions non-stop for a long 15 minutes? No. Not really. Covington is going to pressure and wear Maia to his limits. Its not gonna win honors from the crowd but Colby stays safe long enough to take Maia's wind and then comes the G&P.
WINNER-Colby Covington by Decision
Rob Font (14-2) -190 vs. Pedro Munhoz (14-2-1) +165
Team Sityodtong represent! MMAFO championed Font as our dark horse contender 3 years ago, and he has not disappointed us going 4-1. Font is a very strong boxer and brings a slick game knowing what he needs to do to at the very least, win rounds.
Pedro has been proving himself not only a tough out but a man who belongs in the UFC 135's. Munhoz likes to pressure but doesn't try to protect himself as he wades in. Sneaky submissions available.
Rob bases it all around the jab, getting comfortable and employing range to out-smart Pedro.
WINNER-Rob Font by Decision
Francisco Trinaldo (21-5) -220 vs. Jim Miller (28-10) +180
"Everyman" Miller has represented the professional blue collar fighting style for twelve years. The man has fought the best, been through wars, and held his position as one of the respected elites in one of the most competitive divisions in all of MMA. Jimmy is only 34, but the wear has become apparent on his game.
"Massaranduba" is no spring chicken at 39, but he made a nice run on 155 at one point winning 7 in a row before losing to Kevin Lee in March. Trinaldo had a nice couple of years there but we can all see the end is coming. Franny isn't speeding up but he is going to be competitive whenever he competes.
If we're going nose to the grind stone, dirty, slow, brutal, pace for 15 minutes, how do you not back the Jersey boy? As long as you are not a Lime carrying tick Jim, and even then apparently, you are going to break under the pressure and eat a ton of up close, nasty standing elbows.
Upset Pick WINNER-Jim Miller by Decision
Thiago Santos (15-5) +100 vs. Jack Hermansson (16-3) -120
"Marreta"is a good fighter who is never a threat for a title run. He's not quite the "gatekeeper" level, but just a notch below weeding out the undesirables in the UFC's 185 division. Santos is a strong striker but we all know who he is at this point. No surprises here.
Swede's "Joker" has been cruising since joining the UFC (minus the embarrassing stumble at UFN 100) feeling his striking skills and also showing some bright spots when he's been forced to grapple.
Oh, so we gonna throw here, eh? This could be a really fun underrated battle. Do not be completely shocked if Hermansson sneaks in some takedowns early just to keep Santos on his toes. Then its jab all day picking apart Thiago in a close, fun outing.
WINNER-Jack Hermansson by Decision
#10 John Lineker (29-8) -550 vs. Marlon Vera (10-3-1) +425
We always have to start Lineker fights with the obvious question. Will John make weight? How sad is this to be the question mark around your career? You are the guy that can't be professional. Lineker should be embarrassed with his reputation but he was climbing the Bantamweight ranks crushing fools until he met the meat grinder that is TJ Dillashaw who annihilated the Brazilian. "Baby Baroni" will always have crazy power, a crazy chin, and a crazy brawl that we begrudgingly enjoy.
"Chito" is having a damn good year getting noticed defeating Brad Pickett in his final fight in March, and then following it up with an armbar submission in July with noticeably more attention on the 24 year old from Ecuador.
Well, "Chito" is gonna get murdered. Vera isn't the guy to step to Lineker and do any damage. Its Lineker versus the scale and then Vera gets decimated.
WINNER-John Lineker by Rd.1 TKO
Prelims on FS2:
Vicente Luque (11-6-1) -125 vs. Niko Price (11-0) +105
Don't get it. Don't get why this Luque guy is a thing. He just doesn't seem very good but he is 4-2 at 170s. The guy starts hard and just fades until the end.
"The Hybrid" has looked very impressive in his short UFC run finishing 3 tough opponents (including MMAFO's boy Alan Jouban). Price has one of those long frames that fit MMA well and sneaky power
Dunno, just don't see what the impressive thing is with Luque but but there is a price on Price's chin (see what we did there).
WINNER-Vicente Luque by Rd.2 TKO
Antônio Carlos Júnior (8-2, 1) -500 vs. Jack Marshman (22-6) +400
"Cara de Sapato" is trying to fuck around and become relevant at Middleweight. The Brazilian ATT fighter has won 3 in a row by showcasing his brilliant Jiu-Jitsu skills but it hasn't all been roses. Junior is developing in MMA and can be lured into a brawl when he should be patient.
"The Wale Hammer"is a wicked kickboxer but he is not gonna do a damn thing on the mat. The canvas is lava for Marshman.
Marshman won't stay off the ground for 15 minutes and likely Junior grounds him sooner rather than later as he grows more comfortable in the Octagon and gets another stoppage.
WINNER-Antonio Carlos Junior by Rd.2 Submission
Hacran Dias (23-5-1) +140 vs. Jared Gordon (13-1) -160
"Barnabe" has disappointed in his UFC run going a paltry 3-4 including his last 2. Dias has fallen short 4 times when stepping up in competition and missed weight last out.
"Gordo" fights at a faster pace but isn't the most accurate striker. Jared is aggressive but needs to find some offense when scrambling all over the place. We need reason for the motion.
This is a hard fight to call. Dias definitely has the experience edge and has faced a higher level of opposition, but he'll need to keep busy if taken down showing the judges his work. Hacran builds slowly as the fight goes on winning a narrow decision.
Upset Pick WINNER-Hacran Dias by Decision
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (17-5) -220 vs. Max Griffin (13-3) +180
"EZ-D" has been decent bringing a technical game with natural power. Dos Santos keeps a steady pace fights smart.
Max "Pain" oh, what does one say. He's a scrappy brawler but does he really belong at this level?
WINNER-Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by Decision
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Deiveson Figueiredo (12-0) +145 vs. Jarred Brooks (13-0) -165
Hey yo, the "0" must go! Two undefeated youngsters in a Flyweight scrap looking to see who has the bright future in the division.
"Diaco/Deus da Guerra" won his promotional debut in June by TKO strikes aggressively because he has no fear if he is taken down via his nasty Jiu-Jitsu game.
"The Monkey God" is a tiny warrior even for the lil division. The Hoosier is a natural athlete but his movement doesn't always result in offense. Still Brooks can scramble and has nice clean takedowns but his confidence is his secret weapon as he does not rattle in the big moments.
This is gonna be an interesting one. Brooks will need to earn takedowns and can play top control long enough to steal a couple of rounds while Figueiredo gets frantic.
WINNER-Jarred Brooks by Decision
Marcelo Golm (5-0) -210 vs. Christian Colombo (8-2-1) +175
"Godzilla" is old, slow, but tough as hell and works hard.
The undefeated Brazilian is 12 years younger and has (T)KO'd every opponent faced (granted at the lower level) in the opening round. Dude is young and strong but had better be ready to go more than a round if the old man is still standing after the 1st five minutes.
WINNER-Marcelo Golm by Rd.2 TKO
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