UFC Fight Night 118: Cerrone vs. Till: Picks, Prognostications + Odds

October 21, 2017

Ergo Arena

Gdańsk, Poland

Main Card on UFC Fight Pass:

Donald Cerrone (32-9, 1) -155 vs. Darren Till (15-0-1) +135

The hard ridin' unable to reach the summit "Cowboy," has already begun to accept the "gatekeeper to the elite" status which is likely not a good sign. Cerrone has lost his last 2 appearances but hung in a closely competitive war with Robbie Lawler in July, though the main takeaway from that night was a joy in that Donald's dome didn't get caved in. When the general consensus is surviving is the best you can hope for, that's an omen. Even if that is the narrative currently in the "Cowboy's" career, you cannot forget that he is still one of the most formidable strikers in the game today and he has been competing at the highest level for many years now.

The "Scouser" has made MMAFO cautiously optimistic but he has not broken out as we had hoped (yet), but he can bring the pressure that seems to be the Achilles heel for the slow starting Cerrone. Darren is a versatile striker and can play slick submissions but he should have been winning in more dominant fashion on his way to this, the biggest fight of his career. 

We just don't think Darren is ready quite yet. He make equate himself well with a nice showing but the win will elude him. Then we all wonder where "Cowboy" goes from this win which he will have to earn and doesn't gains much.

WINNER-Donald Cerrone by Decision

#4 Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-2) 
-500 vs. Jodie Esquibel (6-2) +400

Oh our wonderfully talented and fetching KK. How you have stolen the hearts of MMAFO and placed them inside of your deadly hands. Anywho, Kowalkiewicz got caught quickly against Claudia Gadelha in June, tapping to a slick RNC. Karolina was furious at her own performance, as angry as this charming and docile as the Pole can appear, and has vowed to return to the win column with a vengeance in the homeland.

The wife of "The Dean of Mean," Keith Jardine (which is cool) and earned a work-woman-like record of 4-2 in Invicta FC. The Jackson-Wink fighter is a brick of a woman but she doesn't excel in any one specific skill.

Karolina can grapple enough and use her takedown defense to keep her safe against Jodie while touching her foe up before celebrating in her home country with fellow superstar Mamut.

WINNER-Karolina Kowalkiewicz by Decision

Jan Błachowicz (19-7) +140 vs. Devin Clark (8-1) -160

Janet is durable as hell and can strike a bit but his lack of athleticism has hindered him as he put together a 2-4 record in the UFC. Blachowicz is a good grappler when on top but he is seemingly completely lost on bottom.

Jackson-Wink's "Brown Bear" shoots a good takedown and will do the mat work to earn the win even if'n nobody cares.

Upset Pick WINNER-Jan Blachowicz by Decision

Oskar Piechota (9-0) -190 vs. Jonathan Wilson (7-2) +165

The only blip on Oskar's record is a draw 4 years ago in only his 4th professional bout. Pie has a technically strong striking game as well as boxing defense which MMA fighters oddly seem to ignore learning in general. OPie has been murdering opponents as of late and Mr. Wilson will be another victim. No offense to Jon who is an okay fighter, but not today sir. Not today.

WINNER-Oskar Piechota by Rd.1 TKO

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Marcin Held (22-7) -400 vs. Nasrat Haqparast (8-1) +325

Hey Held, what the fuck is wrong with you? The 25 year old is a great all around fighter and yet he has dropped all 3 of his UFC appearances and just looks off. Marcin had Diego Sanchez beaten and then let the vet back into the contest which ended up costing him. Joe Lauzon thought he lost to Held but the judges disagreed. The Pole was straight handling Damir Hadzovic when he shot a telegraphed takedown right into a knee in May. It's just bizarre that a youngster this talented cannot seem to put everything together.

Nasrat lost his professional debut and then has not looked back winning every single contest by (T)KO finish. Haqparast trains at King's MMA but he hasn't had to prove anything on the ground which is Held's best attribute.

If Marcin fucking loses again we will write him off forever. The dude just has to win as he is a really, really good fighter who cannot seem to stop breaking mirrors while walking under a ladder with an open umbrella. 

WINNER-Marcin Held by Rd.2 Submission

Anthony Hamilton (15-8) +125 vs. Adam Wieczorek (8-1) -145

The only reason Tony is still employed is because he stepped in on 3 weeks notice. Three straight losses and all in the 1st round. Its also surprising Hamilton is even allowed to compete having been knocked out a mere month ago. He's terrible. He'd be terrible in Bellator. Turrable.

"Siwy" is making his UFC debut on a 7 fight winning streak. Adam doesn't have defense but his chin cannot be as bad as Hamilton's. It just can't.

WINNER-Adam Wieczorek by Rd.1 KO

Damian Stasiak (10-4) +100 vs. Brian Kelleher (17-8) -115

"Webster" has gone an unnoticed 2-2 in the UFC portends to be a grappler showing skill in sweeping Iuri Alcantara before then making a giant mistake and tapping to Marlon Vera last out. Damian is supposed to be a karate fighter in truth but he has yet to show it. 

"Boom" seems unimpressive but has a steady boxing style and can do the standard wrestling game. 

There has to be more confidence in Brian's approach and he's at least been shown to follow a game plan but this should be close.

WINNER-Brian Kelleher by Decision

Sam Alvey (31-9) +130 vs. Ramazan Emeev (15-3) -150

Weight Cut Rant:

Alvey has to cut 30+ lbs. this week to make weight for his fight. That is moronic, and before everybody says, "we need more weight classes," try to remember, everyone signs a contract for a specific weight. If more weight classes are brought in nothing changes because competitors will attempt to gain every advantage they can. If you cannot make the weight limit, that is on you. Personal responsibility people. MMAFO is sick and tired of hearing how the UFC should handle this because its their responsibility as the promoter. No. Stupid. Stop repeating things you heard Ariel Helwani say. He is not all knowing. Personal responsibility. Onto the fight.

Emeev has won 4 bouts in a row and is coming from M-1 Challenge to make his UFC debut. Ramazan doesn't have much in the way of defense, but he swings big looking for the home run even when it gasses him out. The difference between the two men is likely Emeev's abilities on the ground.

"Smile'N" Sam fights a ton but the question is why does the UFC allow it when he is one of the most boring fighters on the roster. Sam's throws a single punch at a time and though he can knockout opponents with that lone shot, it makes for a long, boring, night. Add to that a long plane ride and a giant weight cut, and it makes zero sense to pick Sammy.

WINNER-Ramazan Emeev by Rd.2 Submission

Artem Lobov (13-13-1) +150 vs. Andre Fili (16-5) -170

For fucks sake Lobov is back. Jesus this guy is annoying and has anybody mentioned he's Conor McGregor's best friend in the last 5 minutes yet? We get it already. Lobov is a standard striker but equated himself nicely against Kevin Swanson in April. 

"Touchy" Fili alternates wins and losses with an odd consistency. The resume dictates that it's Andre's turn to win but this will be a close fight. Fili can push the pace while throwing out some crazy shit, but he's also wild and takes risky chances.

Andre likes to feint and feint, without really accomplishing much. And Artem isn't impressive in any aspect, instead making a good living licking Conor's boots clean. If "Touchy" can't beat a guy with a .500 record, he should retire.

WINNER-Andre Fili by Decision

Warlley Alves (10-2) -310 vs. Salim Touahri (10-1) +255

Remember when Mr. Alves was supposed to be a world beater in '15? Undefeated until the year 2016 came in and Warlley lost both of his UFC bouts. Despite the recent losses, Alves has a complete game and pressures hard. This is also the cat that defeated Colby Covington and Alan Jouban in the nasty Welterweight division before the recent slump.

The Pole is stepping in on about 5 minutes notice and is a hard striker with combinations. Best of luck kid.

WINNER-Warlley Alves by Rd.2 Submission

Lina Lansberg (7-2) +220 vs. Aspen Ladd (5-0) -260

Well, if you can say one thing about the Swede, its that she can take an ass kicking and keep smiling through the blood. Is there any female fighter that wears damage worse than Lansberg? Girl gets her UFC chance against Cristiane Justino and comes out with a single eye before facing Lucie Pudilova in her sophomore effort, leaving the cage looking worse than Sloth from Goonies. She seems to bleed if you breathe on her but the "Elbow Queen" is nasty in the clinch and tough as hell.

Ladd(y) is 13 years the junior of her opponent and has been labeled with that "prospect" tag. She is a good boxer and can control as well as inflict damage when in top control. This is Aspen's UFC debut and at 22, with only 5 professional bouts, the lack of experience may come into play.

Ladd is the better/younger striker and if she can keep at a jab's distance while avoiding the clinch, she should garner enough points in what is likely to be a close, bloody battle.

WINNER-Aspen Ladd by Decision

Felipe Arantes (18-8-1) +275 vs. Josh Emmett (11-1) -335

We've got a Bantamweight kicking Arantes, facing a Lightweight wrestling Emmett. Nice of these fellas to meet in the middle. Team Alpha Male's competitor should push forward and engage the grappling skills keeping Felipe from being able to utilize his kicking game.

WINNER-Josh Emmett by Decision