Sunday, February 04, 2018

UFC Fight Night 123 Machida vs. Anders: Fight Card, Half-Assed Musings + Odds!


February 3, 2018
Arena Guilherme Paraense
Belém, Brazil

Main Card on FS1(9pm/CT):

Lyoto Machida (22-8) +250 vs. Eryk Anders (10-0) -300

This pairing has a lot of questions to answer.

At the tender age of 39, "The Dragon" has fallen on hard times returning from a two-year suspension right back onto the loss column. Machida has lost 4 of his last 5 and the "retirement" talk is following him around like the doubters. Karate is a MMA style that ages badly and the normally elusive veteran was knocked out in his last two appearances. 

The former Crimson Tide linebacker is undefeated and looking for a big name to put on the resume. Anders is knockout specialist who has a crazy amount of power in both hands.

It seems like people are betting far too highly upon unproven Anders. He hits hard sure, and Machida is fading right, but Eryk has never even sniffed this level. If Lyoto can't do his decision dance here he should retire. But he won't have to.

WINNER-Lyoto Machida by Decision


#2 Valentina Shevchenko (14-3) -1000 vs. Priscila Cachoeira (8-0)+650

"The Bullet" was defeated by Amanda Nunes by the narrowest of margins last September, but she has always said Flyweight is the division for her. Now the UFC gods have delivered her wish and Valentina starts fresh in the weight class tailor made for her.

Welcoming Shevchenko will be the undefeated "Pedrita" from Rio de Janeiro. Priscila is a fellow kickboxer but lacking in defense and the polish of her opponent.

We all know this is made for Valentina to win, and she should as she's a better striker, and though anything can and will happen in MMA, we look for "Shevvy" build a lead and never look back.

WINNER-Valentina Shevchenko by Decision

Michel Prazeres (23-2) -140 vs. Desmond Green (20-6) +120

"D-Green" is an ultra-active 155 counter-striker who struggles with finding any reason to why he bouncing around so often without throwing anything. 

"Trator" is on the wrong side of 30 but rocking a 5-fight winning streak. The Brazilian tank barrels forward searching for takedowns and G&P unless you leave something open for a sub attempt. Michel should earn enough control time on the ground for a win on points in an uneventful 15 minutes.

WINNER-Michel Prazeres by Decision


Timothy Johnson (10-4, 1) +140 vs. Marcelo Golm (6-0) -160

"State Trooper" Johnson looked turrible last out as he was sluggishly KO'd by Junior Albini in the very 1st round. Tim and his mustache have strong punches, though nothing special, and he really likes top control G&P as he was a collegiate wrestler in the 1950's.

The undefeated Golm is only 25 and got the heavyweight fast tracking to the big show. Marcelo is unproven but he has the normal big man power but it must be stated he has never been out of the opening round in his young career.

Tim should slog around the Octagon a bit but he'll get got before the going gets gone. Or something like that.

WINNER-Marcelo Golm by Rd.1 TKO

Thiago Santos (16-5) -280 vs. Anthony Smith (28-12) +240

This match makes perfect sense. Both of these dudes are basically boxers in MMA, and they're going to bang it out as 185 mirrors of each other. "Lionheart" is fun but he'll slow down and he doesn't have the technical striking of Santos. Thiago could have a chin that's under suspicion, but the percentages lean toward him in a just-for-fun fight.

WINNER-Thiago Santos by Rd.2 TKO

Prelims on FS1 (7pm/CT):

Sergio Moraes (12-3-1) +180 vs. Tim Means (27-9-1) -220

MMAFO thought Means made things hard for himself against Belal Muhammad but it was his two disappointing showings against (cheater >Alex Oliveira that give us pause at this point in his career. Tim has "Hellbows" and all, but he is also easily taken down and can be stymied with varied attacks. 

The "Panther" has gone 6-2-1 in the UFC but like his opponent, it seems as though we've seen how far this man can go in the division, and now its just about staying around and relevant enough to be used on preliminary cards. Moraes is a Jiu-Jitsu player and a long limbed striker.

Can we trust Tim at this point? He should win this especially with Sergio happily playing the striking game even though he should not, but Means has not won back our trust. Until he gets a run going, we betray him to the competition.

Upset Pick WINNER-Sergio Moraes by Decision

Alan Patrick Silva Alves (14-1) -235 vs. Damir Hadzovic (11-3) +195

"Nuguette" is a striker who uses takedowns just to keep you thinking' bout it.

"The Bosnian Bomber" is looking to put a Herzegovina on Alves (waiting for applause to die down). 

Upset Pick WINNER-Damir Hadzovic by Decision

Douglas Silva de Andrade (24-2) +110 vs. Marlon Vera (10-4-1) -130

"D'Silva's" resume is more padded than a Nickelodeon star's bra. Punch, reset. Punch, reset. Punch, reset.

"Chito" is awiight. He's smooth once he gets going (if he gets going). Marlon loses the opening round and then comes back to win on the scorecards.

WINNER-Marlon Vera by Decision

Iuri Alcantara (34-9, 1) +100 vs. Joe Soto (18-6) -120

"Marajo" has been doing the damn thing since 2002 and at age 37, he's coming in off a 1-2 past year. Iuri is a kickboxer with a ton of experience.

We dunno about Soto, no mo, ya know bro? The guy is talented, but he doesn't seem to take things up to the level necessary to be a true player at 135s. Joey is truly well rounded and yet inactive.

Who fucking knows? If Soto actually fought like he gave a damn we'd side with him. If Iuri was throwing like Iuri of age 30, we'd pick him. Time for the coin-flip which is usually reserved for bouts we don't care about, but in this case we just cannot decide.

Upset Pick WINNER-Iuri Alcantara by Decision?

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass (6:pm/CT):

Deiveson Figueiredo (13-0) -150 vs. Joseph Morales (9-0) +130

The "0" must go!

So "Deus da Guerra" has never been defeated and fared well thus far journeying into the UFC waters, winning his 1st two outings. Ol' Deive likes to work for subs from top position and power his way through contests.

"Bopo" is the youngster from Team Alpha Male and also an instructor, who is a rubbery grappler and cuts a pace that would make the Flash weary.

Can't say as we were sold on Figueiredo when he 1st joined up, but now we're coming around. It's going to be hard for Morales to deal with the power that's coming his way and he could get clipped while Deive is winging reckless. We have to side with the results from the Brazilian.

WINNER-Deiveson Figueiredo by Decision

Maia Kahaunaele-Stevenson (6-4) +325 vs. Polyana Viana Mota (9-1) -400

There isn't a ton to say here as we begin the oft painful journey of fleshing out a new division. 

"Dama de Ferro" comes in at age 25 and a 5 fighting winning streak and wants to impose her Jitz game at all costs.

Joe "Daddy" Stevenson's wife Maia is 10 years the senior of her opponent and is generally a striker.

Can't say we see a ton in Kahaunaele while Mota's Jitz seems legitz.

WINNER-Polyana Mota by Rd.2 Submission

MMAFO 8-3 on the picks.

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