Wednesday, July 25, 2018

UFC on Fox 30 Alvarez vs. Poirier 2: Fight Card, Prognostications + Odds


July 28, 2018
Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Main Card on FOX (7pm/CT):

#3 Eddie Alvarez (29-5,1) +145 vs. #4 Dustin Poirier (23-5,1) -165 [Rematch]

About damn time Ed. MMA fans have been demanding this rematch ever since it's unsatisfying ending in March of '17. It was an epic fight as the men went toe to toe but then Alvarez threw some very illegal knees to the dome of Poirier which halted the contest. No satisfaction for anyone and then Eddie seemingly jilted the fans by taking a bout with Justin Gaethje last December instead of settling things with Dustin. Finally, we are doing the damn thing again and now tempers are flaring as Poirier feels disrespected and Alvarez unapologetic for the "accidental" illegal blows.

"The Underground King" hasn't been under for a long time as he has fought the absolute best in the UFC gaining the Lightweight title as well as amassing a 4-2-1 record in the UFC. Alvarez is a wizard standing bringing all sorts of fun violence but he can also wrestle if needs be.

"Diamond" has won 3 in a row and is very close to earning his 1st title shot! Poirier is a finisher stopping 10 men in various fashion for his 15 UFC wins. Dustin needs to stick to his game plans instead of getting heated in the cage and throwing out all logic for violence.

Well, the 1st meeting saw Poirier hurting Alvarez numerous times before he saw the end and went for broke allowing Ed to take the upper hand until the shower of illegal knees.These men fight in very similar fashion but no matter how many times "The Underground King" seems damaged and on his way out of the fight, he finds a way to victory. Eddie won't be caught unprepared this time for Dustin "Diamond's" attacks and will use the allotted time to pick apart Poirier in what should be an exciting war, but one where Alvarez just finds enough moments to win 3 rounds.

Upset Pick WINNER-Eddie Alvarez by Decision

#3 Jose Aldo (26-4) -125 vs. #6 Jeremy Stephens (28-14) +105

Nobody's got love for old Aldo anymore. MMAFO remembers that Jose is the Greatest Featherweight of All Time and had an absolutely stellar run as WEC & UFC Champion for 8 goddamn years! "Scarface" terrified the 145 division as he leg kicked the hell out of everyone and marched through challenger after challenger. Then the disastrous loss to Conor McGregor seemed to change everything. Aldo returned to defeat old foe Frankie Edgar only to lose twice to current Featherweight Champion Max Holloway. Now MMA pundits are questioning not only the durability of the longtime warrior, but his heart hinting that Jose wants out of the sport and into boxing away from the UFC. Rumors also had the Brazilian finally making his way up to 155 where the weight cut wouldn't be so harsh, only to sign back in his old hood against the "Lil Heathen." Is Aldo still elite, or will the "decline" continue?

For his part, Stephens has stayed the same throughout his career. An total murderer on the feet, Jeremy has punched his way to a 3-fight streak and has seemingly got to that final level where the title shot lies. Stephens has lost some bouts in his career for sure, but has also stayed durable and deadly.

Jose Aldo is better. He just is. The man is only 31 years of age so technically in his prime. Aldo has far more tools and speed so as long as he keeps it steady and technical, he'll cruise to a judges nod as people remember how one dimensional Stephens is, and hopefully how good Aldo is.

WINNER-Jose Aldo by Decision

https://www.instagram.com/joannajedrzejczyk/?hl=en
#2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk (14-2) -300 vs. #7 Tecia Torres (10-2) +250

Joanna "Violence" was untouched and unbeaten until November of last year when huge underdog Rose Namajunas viciously TKO'd her in the very 1st round! The Pole got an immediate rematch and though she fought well, Joanna still came up short in competitive fray. Now Jedrzejczyk has a quick turnaround and wants to get back in the win column perhaps before moving up in weight to 125s.

Many have called Joanna's fall due to arrogance but she just faced a perfect counter to her style in Rose and came back without fear or trepidation. Joanna is a true warrior and has been less talkative this camp perhaps out of respect to her talented opponent, or perhaps showing some personal growth. Either way, "Jedze" is in her peak form and still a contender with her striking prowess and determination.

The "Tiny Tornado" has always been undersized for the division, but she makes up for it with crazy athleticism, technical knowledge, speed, and high fight acumen. Torres was knocking on the title shot door after defeating Michelle Waterson, only to suffer a setback losing to division tank Jessica Andrade. Tecia has to make that next step to stay near the top and prove she can finish someone despite a lack of power.

We're going to war here mainly on the feet where Joanna will showcase her violent tendencies. Expect Tecia to earn some takedowns but she won't get much done on the mat. "Jedze" finds enough opportunities to work her magic in a fun scrap.

WINNER-Joanna Jedrzeczyk by Decision

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-2) -115 vs. Alexander Hernandez (9-1) +120

Hernandez won't have an answer for the Tristar wrestling smothering him for 15 minutes. It'll be bad.

WINNER-Oliver Aubin-Mercier by Decision

Prelims on FOX (5pm/CT):

Jordan Mein (30-12) -115 vs. Alex Morono (14-4,1) -105

Mein has been doing this so long he's about 42 in fight years. Having already retired once, Jordan has looked refocused since returning and should win this after using the full15.

WINNER-Jordan Mein by Decision

Hakeem Dawodu (7-0-1) -370 vs. Austin Arnett (15-5) +310

"Mean" Hakeem had the 145ers terrified when he came to the big dance with crazy Muay Thai striking. Then Dawodu entered the Octagon, got dropped a few seconds in, and was subbed in under a minute for a disastrous debut. 

"Double-A" comes from the just awful Sikjitsu camp and is going to be flatlined within a round.

WINNER-Hakeem Dawodu by Rd.1 KO

Kajan Johnson (22-12-1) +500 vs. Islam Makhachev (15-1) -700

WINNER-Islam Makhachev 

Ion Cuțelaba (13-3-0,1) +135 vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-4) -155

The "Ion Cannon" is coming to make war with Antigulov. Cutelaba is a young 205er who is aggressive as it gets throwing all he has in every punch. Not a lot of nuance to  the game but damned if he's not fun to watch.

"Gadzooks" has won 14 in a row (2-0 in the UFC) just tapping fools like it ain't no thang. Antigulov is wrestling machine comrade.

MMAFO is going crazy here folks. We thinks Cutelaba wins this via finish! Nobody is making this pick as Antigulov is a more finished product and has more tools in the shed, but we don't think he can take the barrage of fists that will be coming his way and that he hasn't got good cardio. Ooh, the crazy pick. Ya gotta love it.

Upset Pick WINNER-Ion Cutelaba by Rd.2 TKO

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass (3pm/CT):

John Makdessi (15-6) -170 vs. Ross Pearson (22-14,1) +150

What can one say about the Canadian "Bull." He's not very good. The guy is a standard fighter who never varies his offense and hasn't shown his supposed "power" in 5 years. 

After a brutal 4-fight losing streak, Ross "The Boss" finally got a victory in February. Pearson is a great dude but he was never super athletic, and now at 33 he is visibly slowing down even more. "The Real Deal" is great about mixing up his combinations but when he gets touched, he doesn't wear damage well.

A worrying stat is the 4 (T)KO losses Ross has suffered but he generally pulls through maybe not for the win, but for the victory of finishing a grueling bout. Sadly, it's John's fight to lose as he loves the fight being brought to him allowing him to pick and choose his spots. John will use his athleticism to win on the cards. 

WINNER-John Makdessi by Decision

#4 Alexis Davis (19-7) +135 vs. #7 Katlyn Chookagian (10-1) -155

The "Ally-Gator" has beaten some really big names (Liz Carmouche, Sarah Kaufman, Amanda Nunes) and is a tough ass grinding veteran.

The aptly nicknamed "Blonde Fighter" (lame) is kind of a mini Holly Holm only with less power but technically solid.

Eh, we lean toward the younger fighter. Katlyn may not have much power, but Alexis does not wear the damage well anymore and quite frankly, time is ticking. 

WINNER-Katlyn Chookagain by Decision

Dustin Ortiz (18-7) +165 vs. #9 Matheus Pereira (13-1-1) -190

Ortiz has been doing the damn thing for a long time now and we know his style. Dustin is a counter guy who is good everywhere and a test for anyone in the division, but he's never going to crack the elite level. Gatekeeper is the name and aggression is the game. 

MNP is riding a 6-fight win streak and the Jackson-Wink fighter likes to counter. Pereira does not take chances and uses his strengths wisely.

Flyweight is always a toss up it seems but you have to like the younger up and comer against the veteran who isn't going to evolve his game at this point.

WINNER-Matheus Pereira by Decision

https://www.instagram.com/randamarkos/?hl=en
Randa Markos (8-6) +155 vs. Nina Ansaroff (8-5) -135

"The Quiet Storm" has always been a fav of MMAFO coming off TUF 20 as a mature decent woman who tended to outwork her foes. Markos is a wrestling boxer who can't seem to put a streak together alternating wins and losses.

"The Strina" may be best known as champ Amanda Nunes' girlfriend, but she opened some eyes last out defeating Angela Hill and it looked as though the confidence was at an all time high.

Eh, we're leaning toward our crush on this one so don't take our pick as gospel.

Upset Pick WINNER-Randa Markos by Decision

Devin Powell (8-3) -125 vs. Alvaro Herrera (9-5) +105

WINNER-Devin Powell