UFC 129: St-Pierre vs. Shields Fight Card
April 30, 2011
Rogers Centre
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
I've got the Canadians winning 5, the Americans winning 6, the TUF alumni going 0-2, the Scrap Pack going 2-1, and the lone Brazilian dominant.
Main Bouts (PPV):
Welterweight Champion Georges St-Pierre (21-2) vs. Jake Shields (26-4-1) GSP has defended his 2nd title run 5 times while the American Jiu-Jitsu artist who has won a staggering 15 times in a row against a who's who of MMA. I think we probably see 25 minutes here with Jake fading as the fight goes on unable to deal with GSP's vastly superior striking and lightning quick takedowns. Jake needs to get his hands on "Rush" to take him down which is going to be a problem. Shields has also had cardio issues in the past and GSP can cause that to happen to about anyone. The signs and percentages say Jake doesn't have much chance to win though his ability to absorb punishment and credible heart will carry him through the evening.
Main Bouts (PPV):
Welterweight Champion Georges St-Pierre (21-2) vs. Jake Shields (26-4-1) GSP has defended his 2nd title run 5 times while the American Jiu-Jitsu artist who has won a staggering 15 times in a row against a who's who of MMA. I think we probably see 25 minutes here with Jake fading as the fight goes on unable to deal with GSP's vastly superior striking and lightning quick takedowns. Jake needs to get his hands on "Rush" to take him down which is going to be a problem. Shields has also had cardio issues in the past and GSP can cause that to happen to about anyone. The signs and percentages say Jake doesn't have much chance to win though his ability to absorb punishment and credible heart will carry him through the evening.
WINNER-Georges St-Pierre by Decision
Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo (18-1) vs. Mark Hominick (20-8) I think this fight is likely to be 1 of the more lopsided bouts on the card. Aldo is not as good as Mark striking, he is better. Hominick has a very overrated ground game while Aldo hasn't even needed to break out his Jiu-Jitsu blackbelt yet. I just don't see Hominick being able to deal with Aldo's leg kicks and ridiculous speed and if it does hit the floor, the "Machine" will tapout for his 6th submission career loss. "Junior" hurts Mark early and then puts him away on the mat.
WINNER-Jose Aldo by Rd.2 Submission
Lyoto Machida (16-2) vs. Randy Couture (19-10) Did you know the Brett Farve of MMA is retiring? Yes, we have heard this before and I don't buy it. If the "Natural" can find a way to make it happen, he still wants to fight Fedor Emelianenko. Anywho, the 48 year old Couture schuffles into the Octagon another time to meet a much faster, younger, and far better striker in the "Dragon." Randy's only chance is to get the takedown on Machida and keep him on his back. The dirty boxing won't work as Lyoto can do it just as good if not faster while avoiding takedowns and peppering the chin of Couture from outside his slow range. Providing Lyoto isn't as tentative as he was early in his career this should be a 1 sided fight. Keep this in mind. Couture couldn't beat the lackluster Brandon Vera (I know what the decision was, the judges are fools) yet no sane person would pick Vera over Machida in a fight today. Time for Randy to put down the gloves and pick up his myriad of scarfs as he heads into retirement and begins collecting ex-wives again.
WINNER-Lyoto Machida by Rd.3 TKO
* Chants of "Randy-Randy" rang out proving "Captain America" is beloved around the world. He and Gil were the only Americans who received cheers.
Vladimir Matyushenko (25-5) vs. Jason Brilz (18-3-1) The "Janitor" is well past his prime with a battle worn body while Brilz is coming into his own riding a very close loss to Antonio Nogueira that actually propelled his career forward. Both can wrestle but youth is key here as Jason is physically stronger and more solid while Vlad can see the sun setting. This will be the time to get some refreshments.
WINNER-Jason Brilz by Decision
Ben Henderson (12-2) vs. Mark Bocek (9-3) ATT's badass ginger is here to defeat the contortionist from the MMA Lab. Both men can work the ground but Ben is easily better on the feet. I would pick Mark here but I feel Henderson can evade better with his slick style while landing the strikes that Bocek can't land. Speed wins the day in 1 of the closest fights of the night.
* After Brilz weighed in Joe Rogan asked the sound truck to keep the music level down. I say turn the awful cacophony off.
Ben Henderson (12-2) vs. Mark Bocek (9-3) ATT's badass ginger is here to defeat the contortionist from the MMA Lab. Both men can work the ground but Ben is easily better on the feet. I would pick Mark here but I feel Henderson can evade better with his slick style while landing the strikes that Bocek can't land. Speed wins the day in 1 of the closest fights of the night.
WINNER-Ben Henderson by Decision
* Ben missed weight by half a pound and the athletic commission complained that the loud annoying music was shaking the scale but he was still half a pound over when they turned it off. Henderson made weight in the back within the allotted 30 minutes. Marky tripped up the stairs in front of his home crowd which was kind of funny.
Prelims (On Spike TV):
Nate Diaz (13-6) vs. Rory MacDonald (10-1) The younger Diaz brother meets the Canadian phenom who suffered his 1st loss against Carlos Condit and then went on the shelf with a knee injury for 10 months! Nate has height, length, and Jiu-Jitsu on Rory who is a great athlete who can fight anywhere. MacDonald's power also bothers me and I'm assuming Rory will exploit Nate's porous takedown defense looking to avoid the submission while dropping the G&P. Nate has shown the ability to pull out a submission from anywhere but this is another bit of tough matchmaking as Rory emulates the Achilles heel of the Diaz brothers.
Prelims (On Spike TV):
Nate Diaz (13-6) vs. Rory MacDonald (10-1) The younger Diaz brother meets the Canadian phenom who suffered his 1st loss against Carlos Condit and then went on the shelf with a knee injury for 10 months! Nate has height, length, and Jiu-Jitsu on Rory who is a great athlete who can fight anywhere. MacDonald's power also bothers me and I'm assuming Rory will exploit Nate's porous takedown defense looking to avoid the submission while dropping the G&P. Nate has shown the ability to pull out a submission from anywhere but this is another bit of tough matchmaking as Rory emulates the Achilles heel of the Diaz brothers.
WINNER-Rory MacDonald by Decision
Jake Ellenberger (23-5) vs. Sean Pierson (11-4) I became a fan of Pierson due to his defeating the annoying Matt Riddle and personable nature in interviews. However, he is about to get obliterated. Sean won't have anything for Jake when he goes into beast mode and I'll be very surprised if this bout hears the final bell.
Prelims (On Facebook):
Yves Jabouin (15-6) vs. Pablo Garza (10-1) I have a beef with almost everyone who gets a slot in the UFC because of TUF, and this is no exception. Yves has faced the likes of Jonathan Brookins, Sam Stout, and tonight's Featherweight challenger Mark Hominick while the "Scarecrow" has fought nobody of note. If the "Tiger" can't do it on the feet he is in trouble but I'm not seeing it tonight.
* A chorus of boo's rang out when the Brothers Diaz entered the room at the weigh-ins and no handshake between the fighters.
Jake Ellenberger (23-5) vs. Sean Pierson (11-4) I became a fan of Pierson due to his defeating the annoying Matt Riddle and personable nature in interviews. However, he is about to get obliterated. Sean won't have anything for Jake when he goes into beast mode and I'll be very surprised if this bout hears the final bell.
WINNER-Jake Ellenberger by Rd.3 TKO
* A huge ovation for Mr. Pierson a longtime MMA hero in Canada. At 35, "Pimp Daddy" is a cult hero who made good on his UFC debut last time out and he's a very smart and amicable guy. For a cop.
Prelims (On Facebook):
Yves Jabouin (15-6) vs. Pablo Garza (10-1) I have a beef with almost everyone who gets a slot in the UFC because of TUF, and this is no exception. Yves has faced the likes of Jonathan Brookins, Sam Stout, and tonight's Featherweight challenger Mark Hominick while the "Scarecrow" has fought nobody of note. If the "Tiger" can't do it on the feet he is in trouble but I'm not seeing it tonight.
WINNER-Yves Jabouin by Rd.3 TKO
Ivan Menjivar (21-8) vs. Charlie Valencia (12-6) This is 1 of the tougher fights to predict on this UFC 129 card. The "Pride of El-Salvador" fights out of the Tri-Star gym where some guy named GSP trains. Both men generally lose when meeting the upper tier of their division but Ivan seems a bit sturdier and able to pull out victories even if not in the most spectacular fashion.
Ivan Menjivar (21-8) vs. Charlie Valencia (12-6) This is 1 of the tougher fights to predict on this UFC 129 card. The "Pride of El-Salvador" fights out of the Tri-Star gym where some guy named GSP trains. Both men generally lose when meeting the upper tier of their division but Ivan seems a bit sturdier and able to pull out victories even if not in the most spectacular fashion.
WINNER-Ivan Menjivar by Decision
Jason MacDonald (24-14) vs. Ryan Jensen (15-7) The "Athlete" returns after a gruesome injury his last time out to re-establish himself in front of 55,000 fellow Canadians. I'm a big fan of MacDonald and like him to shock a lot of people who are counting him out in this bout. Jason has size and heart over Ryan who is susceptible to submissions which MacDonald can pull off in spectacular fashion while Jensen relies on his wrestling alone.
John Makdessi (8-0) vs. Kyle Watson (13-6-1) Take the "Bull" all day to bash Jensen, another TUF not yet ready for prime time player, and send him to the unemployment line.
* Ivan broke out the Wolverine claws at the weigh-ins. I have no idea why.
Jason MacDonald (24-14) vs. Ryan Jensen (15-7) The "Athlete" returns after a gruesome injury his last time out to re-establish himself in front of 55,000 fellow Canadians. I'm a big fan of MacDonald and like him to shock a lot of people who are counting him out in this bout. Jason has size and heart over Ryan who is susceptible to submissions which MacDonald can pull off in spectacular fashion while Jensen relies on his wrestling alone.
UPSET WINNER-Jason MacDonald by Rd.2 Submission
John Makdessi (8-0) vs. Kyle Watson (13-6-1) Take the "Bull" all day to bash Jensen, another TUF not yet ready for prime time player, and send him to the unemployment line.
WINNER-John Makdessi by Rd.2 KO
* The "Bull" got right in Kyle's face at the weigh-ins but Kyle only smiled it off.
Claude Patrick (13-1) vs. Daniel Roberts (12-1) The "Prince" has dominated on the ground only losing in his 2nd pro fight and going 2-0 in the UFC. "Ninja" is one of the newer Scrap Pack members who is 3-1 in the UFC winning his last 3. "Ninja" is no slouch on the floor but he also has good striking which I have yet to see from Claude. Thank your god headbutts are now illegal because Patrick has a head the size of Roy Dennis (see the 1985 movie Mask). If, if Daniel can keep off the mat with Patrick I think he can rack up enough points to take the decision. My hope is he won't go at his opponents strength like his teammate Nick Diaz. Both men are very talented but I like Daniel's camp for better training and "Ninja" has more varieties of offense than the conehead.
UPSET WINNER-Daniel Roberts by Decision
* A nice ovation for Gilbert Melendez who joined Scrap Pack teammate Roberts for the weigh-ins. Claude's head weighed in at 44 lbs.
The poster was not created by the UFC but by amazing Olieng whose art can be found here http://olieng.net/ The work is much better than the official poster work by Zuffa.
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