Friday, May 27, 2011

UFC 130:"Rampage" vs Hamill Picks & Prognostications


UFC 130: Rampage vs. Hamill
May 28, 2011
MGM Grand Garden Arena
Las Vegas, Nevada

Main Bouts (PPV):
Quinton Jackson (31-8) vs. Matt Hamill (10-2) I know everyone question's "Rampage's" training methods (or lack thereof) but he is fighting Hamill. I have never been impressed with Matt or his hand picked opponents. When Matt faced any of the top fighters (Rich Franklin, Michael Bisping) he lost and that includes the bout with Jon Jones. "Rampage" has been at the top of the Light Heavyweight division for a long time and has faced and beaten men that would destroy Hamill. I don't like Matt's gas tank or his chances at taking Quinton down. Matt's abysmal striking will be exploited as Jackson boxes his silent ears off before the eventual stoppage.
WINNER-Quinton Jackson by Rd.2 TKO

Frank Mir (14-5) vs. Roy Nelson (15-5) I enjoyed Mir and Nelson trying not to giggle as the friends faced off at the weigh ins with neither acknowledging Roy's pigtails. As far as the fight goes, we all know that Mir can be hurt, and when hurt he does not recover. "Big Country" can bring much harder and better striking while easily holding his own on the ground. Roy took an absolute ass whipping by Junior Dos Santos but never stopped coming. Name one time in Frank's career that he was able to do that. This is a big step forward for Nelson that will leave Mir questioning his place in the Heavyweight division.
UPSET WINNER-Roy Nelson by Rd.1 TKO

Stefan Struve (21-4) vs. Travis Browne (10-0-1) There are going to be a ton of hard fights to pick tonight and this is the 1st. Struve has vastly improved as he gained experience in the UFC but his chin worries me and any midgets standing nearby. I think Travis can hurt him on the feet and on the floor using his durability to overcome any length issues. The submission skills of "Skyscraper" gives me pause but that tendency to get hurt in fights seals the pick.
WINNER-Travis Browne by Rd.2 TKO

Thiago Alves (18-7) vs. Rick Story (12-3) The "Pitbull" is trying to hold his place near the top of the division while the "Horror" is looking for his 1st shot at the elite. Now is his chance. Both guys can bang and grapple at about the same level but you gotta take the sturdy and proven veteran who's looking to make another run at the strap. I like how vicious and downright mean Story fights but the controlled technical Alves may just be the antidote.
WINNER-Thiago Alves by Decision

Brian Stann (10-3) vs. Jorge Santiago (23-8) A very important fight for the Middleweight division. Stann wanted Wanderlei Silva and got the Sengoku Middleweight Champion when he made the jump to Zuffa's brand. Santiago has been in absolute wars and is more well rounded than the "All American." Still, Stann is improving with Greg Jackson and is rolling these days with confidence. I just have a sneaking suspicion that it might be Brian's time and Jorge falls like so many in his UFC debut.
WINNER-Brian Stann by Rd.3 TKO

Prelims: (Spike TV)
Miguel Torres (39-3) vs. Demetrious Johnson (20-5) This fight terrifies me as an "Angel" fan. Miguel's Achilles heel has always been wrestling and "Mighty Mouse" has perhaps the fastest double leg in MMA today. Demetrious is blisteringly fast and will no doubt get that takedown even if he eats some sharp elbows from the former champion. I want to pick my man but this is a bad matchup for Miguel and will probably go in similar fashion to his loss against Joseph Benavidez. Minus the ocean of blood.
UPSET WINNER-Demetrious Johnson by Decision

Tim Boetsch (12-4) vs. Kendall Grove (12-8) Now this is an odd one. Grove is the tall lanky beanpole while the "Barbarian" is making a daring move down to Middleweight after being a chubby Light Heavyweight. We know Ken has a glass jaw but he can use his length to keep slower fighters like Tim at bay and eventually apply his submissions. I have no idea how Boetsch is going to look at this weight but am hoping he can get "Da Douche Bag" fired.
WINNER-Kendall Grove by Decision

Prelims: (Facebook)
Rafaello Oliveira (14-3) vs. Gleison Tibau (22-7) The muscle freak of the Lightweight division reps ATT and has hung at the top of the division though not quite breaking through that title contention ceiling. "Tractor" is returning to the UFC where he was cut after losing to the lower fighters in the 155 lb. club. It seems obvious to me that Tibau has all the tools to meet this last second replacement.
WINNER-Gleison Tibau by Decision

Michael McDonald (12-1) vs. Chris Cariaso (11-2) I really like the demeanor of "Mayday." He is wiser than most fighters and facing a decent fighter. Chris is tough but McDonald should have the skills to best him on the feet as well as the ability to submit anyone at a mere 20 years of age. Also Chris is a miniature person. The Bantamweight division should be on notice that McDonald is for real.
WINNER-Michael McDonald by Decision

Renan Barao (25-1) vs. Cole Escovedo (17-6) Take the Nova Uniao fighter all day. Cole won't be able to get his ground game (going an even if he did Renan can easily hang) as he eats bombs from the Brazilian with great hands and on one of the best teams in Brazil.
WINNER-Renan Barao by Rd.2 TKO

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