UFC Fight Night 49 Henderson vs. dos Anjos: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

August 23, 2014
BOK Center
Tulsa, Oklahoma

Main Bouts on Fox Sports 1:
Benson Henderson (21-3) -375 vs. Rafael dos Anjos (21-7) +285

These two gents are looking for respect in the competitive Lightweight division while the classes Top 2 are missing in action for a damed reality show. 

“Bendo” fashion’s himself the “people’s champion,” and though the people don’t seem to like or care about him very much, he can easily make the case as being one of the best. Since losing the belt, Henderson has felt slighted and added a little frustration and anger to his game which only makes the already dangerous fighter that much better. “Smooth” had little trouble with prospect Rustam Khabilov last June, and after submitting him in the 4th, went screaming to the press row with as much irritability as his christian principles will allow. 

RDA doesn’t speak English, and for that reason alone he is overlooked at 155. The Brazilian has gone 6-1 on his most recent tear while besting perennial Lightweights like “Cowboy” Cerrone, Evan Dunham, and Mark “I Hate Women’s MMA” Bocek. Nothing to sneeze at. RDA was once just a Jiu-Jitsu fighter but now has incorporated some impressive kicks into his game and upped the striking level consistently. 

When the two men meet up, they are destined for 25 minutes. Not that it will be a boring fight, but neither have much ability to finish striking, and both will be uber-hard to submit on the mat. This should be “Bendo” though, all day as he is better in every catagory save 1. And though Champ Anthony Pettis tapped Henderson in their 2nd meeting, Ben is notoriously hard to get a hold of, hold on to, and submit. “Smooth” executes a standard striking game mixing in kicks like jabs and is just faster to the punch as he takes this with the judges nod.
WINNER-Benson Henderson by Decision

Mike Pyle (26-9-1) +190 vs. Jordan Mein (28-9) -240

We are fans of Mike and his majestic mullet but at 38, time is creeping in. “Quicksand” is  9-4 in the UFC and though he was once known as a submission grappler, he has found his striking which has become as vicious as it is effective (isn’t that correct TJ Waldburger?). 

Comparatively, Mein is just a pup at 24 and yet he has more professional fights that the old man! The Canadian striker is 2-1 for the UFC and has serious power and a pretty good chin.

Eh, our hearts say Pyle but he’s going against a real brutal striker that can put the work together and has some pretty nice takedown defense. Best of luck Mikey.
WINNER-Jordan Mein by Rd.3 TKO

Francis Carmont (22-9) -170 vs. Thales Leites (23-4) +140

Oh great. “Frankie Cars” (hello CME Podcast) is back to bore the living shit out of us. “Limitless” has shown to be quite limited indeed. Carmont is a powerful man but he’s tentative on a good day, and though he screams like a female tennis player when he punches, there’s nothing significant behind it.

The reborn Leites is on a 6 fight winning streak and he’s been in the best shape of his life for his 2nd run in the UFC where he has won his 1st 3 bouts. Thales is known for his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but good luck taking the big Frenchman down.

Though we loathe Tristar’s Francis, this fight is made for him. Carmont can clinch Leites up against the cage for those Banshee taps and shouldn’t have much trouble getting Thales to the ground where he uses his size to thump the Brazilian for 15 excruciating minutes of annoyance.
WINNER-Francis Carmont by Decision

Max Holloway (9-3) -500 vs. Clay Collard (13-4,1) +350

Jesus squeeze us, Maxi is coming in as a huge favorite. Why you ask? How about because Collard is taking this opportunity on a single week’s notice! Also, the youngin’ is a decent fighter with good striking and has had experience against the likes of Conor McGregor, Dennis Bermudez, and Dustin Poirier. Its Holloway’s fight to lose and it doesn’t hurt that he’s a better fighter in every area and got a full training camp.
WINNER-Max Holloway by Decision

James Vick (5-0) -155 vs. Walmir Lazaro (12-2) +125

The “Texecutioner” is a prospect who has shown he can improve quite quickly and has some height for the 155 division.

“Bidu” fights out of the vaunted Nova Uniao camp and is making his debut for the Zuffa banner. Walmir is a pretty good kickboxer that should be fun to watch.

The problem for Lazaro is that he isn’t any good on the ground. Vick is jack of all trades, master of none. He doesn’t stand out in any martial art but if he grounds the Brazilian, he’s screwed. James’ camp should know that there is no reason to stand and we see 15 minutes of floor time.
WINNER-James Vick by Decision

Chas Skelly (11-1) +105 vs. Tom Niinimaki (21-6-1) -135

Hold the phone people, we have a guy named Chas, which is always a bad sign. Granted, the true fault lies with his parents but he could go by his middle name or legally change it as an adult. 

Anywho, Niiniimiiikiiii is primarily a Jiu-Jitsu fighter who got tapped out in his last fight and ain’t the best striker.

Team Takedown’s “Scrapper” is a wrestler, as you might suspect via the camp, and is also weak on the feet.

Flip a coin but Skelly is competitive on the canvas with Tom and should hold the advantage standing though ever so slightly. Our confidence is low here but wrestling generally tops Jiu-Jitsu.
Upset Pick WINNER-Chas Skelly by Decision

Prelims on Fox Sports 2:
Neil Magny (11-3) +130 vs. Alex Garcia (12-1) -160

Magny is pretty hard to pin down. The guy has looked terrible in his losses, but seems to be improving each time out and is on a nice 3 fight winning streak including a win over Tim Means and a KO win last out (his 1st stoppage in Zuffa). Neil is a long striker with a solid jab and knows how to use his range properly. 

The “Dominican Nightmare” fights out of Tristar with big punching power and some good wrestling. Think of a mini-Hector Lombard with the same pro’s and cons.

We very slightly favor Garcia who has more tools in the belt against a 1-trick pony but if Magny keeps improving and guards his grill, anything can happen.
WINNER-Alex Garcia by Decision

Beneil Dariush (7-1) +105  vs. Tony Martin (8-1) -135

MMA Kings Dariush came into the UFC on a major hype train which was derailed when he was TKO’d against Ramsey Nijem in April.  Beneil did defeat Charlie Brenneman in his debut but really, who hasn’t? Dariush is decently well rounded but his striking is far better than his opponent.

ATT’s Martin lost his debut against Rashid Magomedov and is improving but he is just so green at this young point in his career. He’s primarily a grappler and not much else.

Martin is a really big Lightweight but if Dariush can keep things standing, should seize the day. Ben might be known as a grappler but playing into your opponents strength is a bad idea when you have such an obvious advantage.
Upset Pick WINNER-Beneil Dariush by Decision 

Aaron Phillips (5-1) +170 vs. Matt Hobar (8-2) -210

Whoooooooo cares?
WINNER-Matt Hobar by Decision

Ben Saunders (16-6-2) -400 vs. Chris Heatherly (8-1) +300

"Killa-B" is back in the UFC bitches! You damn right! Huge "Killa-B" fans here at MMAFO and extatic to have Saunders back where he belongs. Let's just be honest here people, Ben is going to wreck this dude. Saunder's is 5 inches taller, with a crazy reach advantage with the feet and fists, not to mention a Thai Plum that can kill people. The ATT fighter will make Chris work all day which will tire out the notoriously gassy Heatherly. Go get em Ben!

WINNER-Ben Saunders by Rd.2 Submission 

Prelim on UFC Fight Pass:
Wilson Reis (17-5) -315 vs. Joby Sanchez (6-0) +245

Reis is a lil' brick of a Brazilian, who has power Jiu-Jitsu but he needs to keep improving the striking. Reis can be boring as hell at times, but he did defeat Ivan Menjivar in his UFC debut and has nice sly trips.

The undefeated Jackson-Winkeljohn fighter is easily better on the feet but has awful takedown defense which seems to play right into Wilson's hands. Joby also took this fight on short notice.

WINNER-Wilson Reis by Decision  

UFC Fight Night Tulsa Start Times
Main Card on FOX Sports 1: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 2: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT