UFC 182 Jones vs. Cormier: Picks, Prognostications, & (Updated) Odds

Jonny "Bones" Jones is looking for his 8th successful title defense in a row against the undefeated, highly decorated, and highly respected "DC." We've all seen the press conference brawl. We've heard the hot mic's, "You still there pussy?" We know about the bad blood, but none of that really matters when you are looking at two of the best Pound4Pound fighters in all of MMA today, clashing at the highest level. This is MMA at its most elite as their sparkling resume's are debated, and we all sit back and enjoy the best this amazing sport has to offer.

Main Card on PPV:

Jon Jones (20-1) -175 vs. Daniel Cormier (15-0) +145

* The line has narrowed to almost a pick 'em fight.

"Bones" brings his heralded 6'4" frame and 85" reach advantage to the Octagon, along with one of the greatest camps in all of MMA backing him. The Jackson-Winkeljohn fighter is known for using his long push kicks to back away opponents, but as shown against Glover Teixeira, Jonny is not averse to getting up close and personal in the phone booth to do the dirty work. Jones showed great short elbows in the clinch last out and switches effortlessly between southpaw and orthodox stances. The punches are there sure, but it's the champs creativity in the cage that really thwarts would be pretenders to the crown. 

"Bones" showed such imagination latching onto Teixeira's arm and wrenching his shoulder out of socket in a spur of the moment decision. The oft hated 205 king also likes to make it a point to beat foes at their own area of expertise, which is cocky as it is impressive.

"DC" is known for his wrestling prowess which saw him earn a spot on the Olympics in 2004, and 2008. Though only 5'11" Cormier is known for his deceptively fast hands and an ability to close distance, imperative against the lanky Jones, with relative ease. Daniel trains out of AKA with reigning Heavyweight Champion Cain Zelasquez and a who's who of today's most ruthless murderers. "Emelianegro" is brutal in the clinch winging hooks and uppercuts with brawny power and has never, we repeat never, been taken down in his career, and never, lost a round! To be under Cormier is to be suffocated and beaten into submission post haste.

So, we truly have a dream match for MMA fans but, just who imposes their will to come away with the gold? No matter who "Bones" faces, it is hard to pick against him. He is built with the perfect frame for MMA, and has natural instincts in the cage that deplete his enemies of hope mere moments into the contest. That will not happen against Cormier. Daniel is as intelligent a human being, as he is an impressive fighter.  

As this fight moves along, MMAFO believes both men will have their moments in the early goings. There is the speed factor. Both men have gone 25 minutes before, but Jones has far more experience there going the distance 3 times while "DC" has been there but once. Cormier may get Jones down more than once in the early rounds, but we see Jon's takedown defense improving as the clock ticks and Cormier carries his large frame into the championship rounds. This is where "Bones" will begin to, slightly, pull away. Even if "DC" can match Jon early on, he won't be able to complete the pace that Jones sets. The strikes from the champ suddenly begin landing more often and cleaner as Daniel slows. The offensive attack that can come from Jon is far more diverse, and far more effective as this night moves along. Unfortunately, Jonny wins on points as Cormier came to the sport just a tad too late, and is just a touch behind Jones when the scores are read.

On a side note, Jones wants to know why it matters that he is fake. Well, because that says everything about you as a person. Look at it this way champ. I would like to me a man like DC. Honorable, intelligent, an amazing athlete, and amazing human being. I would not want to be a dishonest, manipulative, and immature though amazing athlete. It really is that simple. 
WINNER-Jon Jones by Decision

Donald Cerrone (25-6,1) -170 vs. Myles Jury (15-0) +140

* The line has moved toward Jury late in the week just a tad.

Is it just because Myles Jury seems like a douche bag frat boy that he gets no love or respect in MMA? Might be. Anywho, said brah gets the biggest test of his career against the "Cowboy" who is trying to work himself to death. 

Leonard Garcia's "lifemate" brings his kickboxing while drunk on Budweiser style attack once again. Cerrone showed improved knees up close against Eddie Alvarez and he already has great leg, front, and head kicks to offer. The takedown defense isn't always stellar but Donny does have some nice submissions off his back. The "Cowboy" is dangerous anywhere the fight goes but there is always the worry that he is burning himself out, like he did in '11 when he fought a 5th time that year against Nate Diaz and just looked spent. 

Jury is one of those new breed of fighters who is just plain good everywhere. Myles switches between facets of the game seamlessly and always comes with a great game plan from the coaches at Alliance. The "Fury" has strong counter punches and a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt which he has barely had to flex in the UFC.

Who have you beat kid? Jury hasn't faced anyone the level of Cerrone, but maybe his camp is just bringing him along at a proper pace and he is due for this step up in competition. Timing is everything in MMA. The key will be for Myles to jump on his notoriously slow starting opponent, by getting in close and not letting him get off. Cerrone is on the best run of his career and if he is going to get to a title shot, the time is now, or never. There is far less to lose for the youngster who listens to his corner, in fight, better than about anyone in the game today. It's hard to see Myles not knowing the blueprint on how to defeat Donald laid out by Rafael dos Anjos, Ben Henderson, and even Jaime Varner. Slow the "Cowboy" down. Get in close on him. Press him against the fence and mix in takedowns he doesn't see coming. We look for Jury to be able to do all these things and at least win 2 of 3.
Upset Pick WINNER-Myles Jury by Decision

Brad Tavares (12-3) +120 vs. Nate Marquardt (33-13,2) -150
* Nate "The Great" has become a bigger favorite during fight week. Not sure why.
Are you fucking kidding me? Marquardt is the favorite? People, I know the guys resume and skill set, but have you seen him in the last 2 years? 1-3 not to mention brutal KO losses to Jake Ellenberger and Hector Lombard. This is one of those guy on the way up, meets guy on the way down kind of scenarios. 

Tavares has great takedown defense, a steady jab, and is technical though not powerful (think of Michael Bisping). Brad establishes a good defense and then picks apart Nate without fear if he doesn't shatter that already shot chin.
Upset Pick WINNER-Brad Tavares by Decision

Kyoji Horiguchi (14-1) -650 vs. Louis Gaudinot (6-3) +425

The last great hope for Japan is the "Guch." Kyoji is a student of Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto of the Krazy Bee camp and hits like a massive truck in a diminutive frame. Horiguchi has good takedown defense and strong wrestling skills. He hasn't been held down and let us reiterate, he has power!

Ol' green hair is always fun to watch. He comes a bobbin' and weavin' throwing power shots that generally leave him wide open to be taken down and controlled. 

Gaudinot has a solid beard which will be put to the test early and often against a huge favorite in the odds. Even if Louis survives to the final bell, he's going to take a beating against a man who is a better fighter in every facet (except maybe scrambles).
WINNER-Kyoji Horiguchi by Decision

Hector Lombard (34-4-1,1) -800 vs. Josh Burkman (27-10) +500
* Lombard has become a bigger favorite during the week. Also, never bet on a guy with a tramp stamp.
Let's all welcome Burkman back to the UFC, and by that we mean, fuck this prick. 

Never liked him and never thought he was elite. He's a mid-carder with some striking and submissions, but when put on his back, is completely lost.

Lombard is the devil. This guys is one of the meanest dudes in all of MMA, and he doesn't like anyone. This monster loves his ultra-quick, 1 shot kill power punches and has the Judo skills to employ cunning foot trips and those highlight reel throws we all love so much. Cardio is always an issue.

As long as Hector doesn't completely gas out, we have zero fear that he won't at the very, very least, win 2 of 3 rounds against Burkman. More likely, Lombard puts Josh to sleep where he dreams of once being a champ in WSOF.
WINNER-Hector Lombard by Rd.2 TKO

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:

Danny Castillo (17-7) -235 vs. Paul Felder (9-0) +185

From the co-main event against Tony Ferguson, all the way back down to the prelims, its been tough sledding for "Last Call." The Team Alpha Male member is a staunch wrestler with average striking. Dan has just never evolved to the next level.

The "Irish Dragon" (oh guess who we're rooting for here) is 1-0 for Zuffa and trains with the Renzo Gracie Fight Team. Takedown defense is the key for the ginger.

This is gonna be close, but as shocking as it might be, MMAFO is going for the Irishman! But, Castillo is going to win this based upon his veteran savvy. He'll know when not to strike with this kid and has no aversion to taking an opponent down and playing it safe for the win which he does here.
WINNER-Danny Castillo by Decision

Marcus Brimage (7-3) -190 vs. Cody Garbrandt (5-0) +155
* A lot of bets have come in on the dog Cody, and the bout is hot in betting circles right now!
MMAFO loathes Marcus, so let's talk about Cody. The debuting Garbrandt hails from Team Alpha Male but is the rare striker from said camp. Cody is big for the division and a powerful kickboxer that loves the sprawl and brawl. Here's hoping this is what makes Brimage unemployed in the New Year.
Upset Pick Cody Garbrandt by Rd.2 TKO

Shawn Jordan (16-6) -225 vs. Jared Cannonier (7-0) +175

Speaking of guys that just won't go away, the "Savage" is back to kill or be killed. Jordan has only seen the judges 3 times in 22 professional bouts. We have no idea who Cannonier is so we will be picking the vet.
WINNER-Shawn Jordan by Rd.2 TKO

Evan Dunham (14-6) -550 vs. Rodrigo Damm (12-8) +375

* This line hasn't moved an inch.

Remember when Dunham was a prospect? Evan's UFC career is a disappointing 7-6 on a 3 fight skid. Even so, Dunham has more than enough to put away the 1 trick pony Damm as long as he avoids the sub attempts.
WINNER-Evan Dunham by Decision

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Omari Akhmedov (13-2) -175 vs. Mats Nilsson (11-3-1) +145

Omari should be called the "Russian Bomber" cause that's how he fights. Akhmedov, is always on the offensive since he does not have any defensive skills and doesn't necessarily rely on technique.

The Swede is the opposite looking to ground his opponent and work the submission game. 

Its a styles clash and who imposes their will? We lean slightly to the natural power of Omari though keep in mind he was tapped in his last performance and Nilsson is pretty slick on the canvas.
WINNER-Omari Akhmedov by Rd.2 KO

Alexis Dufresne (5-1) -190 vs. Marion Reneau (4-1) +155
* Alexis is one of the few favorites to get stronger on the lines during fight week.
The "Sneaky Zebra" showed some heart and skill in her debut loss to Sarah Moras. Large for the division at 5'9" Alexis is a striker with power in her mitts but she never seems to make weight which is troubling.

Marion is a Jiu-Jitsu player and about 12 years the senior to Alexis.
WINNER-Alexis Dufresne by Decision

Odds by Bovada.

UFC 182 Start Times
Main Card on PPV: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET  / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT