UFC Fight Night 58: Machida vs. Dollaway: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

December 20, 2014
Jose Correa Arena
Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Main Card on FOX Sports 1:
Lyoto Machida (21-5) -700 vs. CB Dollaway (15-5) +450

The "Dragon" meets the "Blue Blood" in a highly anticipated match that fans have been demanding for years in another throwaway card in Brazil to end 2014. By that we mean, nobody cares or gives CB a chance and the card is shit. On we go!

We all know Machida by now. He's an excellent and frustrating striker who brings a Karate base that actually works in MMA. Even the fastest of fighters cannot hit the "Dragon" and speed isn't exactly Dollaway's strength. The herky-jerky is very difficult to time and when the strikes come, they are lethal.

CB is, well, not that good. Obviously there is some skill as he has gotten to this point, but he is way out of his depth at this level. Dollaway has some amateur wrestling skills, though they tend to go out the window at times as well, and what we like to call, "lucky power" on the feet.

Unless Machida made the MMA Gods angry, he is going to blow through CB for a nice stoppage win. The "Sneer" just isn't an elite fighter but he earned some wins and Lyoto needs someone to fight. The "Dragon" will drop CB on the feet and swarm for the finish just as everyone is expecting. 

WINNER-Lyoto Machida by Rd.2 TKO

Renan Pegado (32-2,1) -950 vs. Mitch Gagnon (12-2) +575

"Barao" returns after failing to make the title rematch with TJ Dillashaw due to a botched weight cut due to a slip and fall in the bathroom, or just a straight cut fail, depending on who you ask. Renan was dragged in front of the camera and chastised by the UFC like a bad little boy so the Brazilian has to be coming in with a chip on his shoulder. "Barao" is one of those fighters who can, and usually does, put it all together in one nice, neat, package. Powerful killing combinations on the feet from Pegado whether with knees, elbows, low kicks, or some fun spinning shit. "Barao" has great takedown defense and can scramble like a madman.

The Canadian is on a 4 fight winning streak after dropping his debut to Bryan Caraway back in July of 2012. Gagnon likes to out wrestle enemies and sneakily latches on to submissions when you are least expecting it. Mitch is also a solid boxer and puts out a quick tempo.

Mitch isn't getting a lot of love as the odds indicate, but "Barao" is an animal of another level. Pegado is a blur of speed and beautiful technique not to mention a nice reach advantage here. Renan is just a level above about everyone (save for TJ) and if miffed as we expect, he gonna make an example of Gagnon.

WINNER-Renan Pegado by Rd.2 TKO

Antonio Carlos Junior (4-0) +135 vs. Patrick Cummins (6-1) -165

Carl's Jr. (see what we did there?) has real power in his combinations but he's lacking in technique and confidence there. ACJ is a massively strong fighter who excels when he can get on top of opponents and hulk smash them into dust. There is a bit of a submission game as well but nothing super high level.

The barista is on a 2 fight winning streak after getting decimated in his debut against Daniel Cormier in February of this year. Pat is a wrestler 1st, and a wrestler 2nd. Yes, training at Reign MMA and King's MMA will improve his game, but he's still very green in his young career. 

We really feel Junior is the better fighter, but Cummins can take his foe down and do the G&P just enough to win on points in an uninspired fight. As long as Patrick is careful on the ground and aware of the submission attempts, he should win the judges nod.

WINNER-Patrick Cummins by Decision

Elias Silverio (11-0) +110 vs. Rashid Magomedov (18-1) -140

The "Highlander" is 2-0 for the UFC and on a nice 10 fight winning streak. The Russian has great timing whether striking, or mixing in a takedown just to keep capitalists honest.

Silverio has an unblemished record is a kickboxer with poor technique, but he has far more power than Rashid and just nasty knees in the clinch.

Both men are streaking but Magomedov is better in all facets of the game. Silverio gets really sloppy out there just going for broke and not worrying about defense. The Russian takes his time working at a steady if not all that exciting pace and cruises to victory on points.

WINNER-Rashid Magomedov by Decision

Erick Silva (16-5,1) -350 vs. Mike Rhodes (6-3) +265

Silva, for being such a highly touted prospect back in 2011, has been very up and down winning 1, and losing 1, for a Zuffa record of 4-4. Any time this kid meets high level competition (Matt Brown, Dong Hyun Kim, Jon Fitch) he falters in one form or the other. Still, the X-Gym fighter has some vicious striking and generally destroys lower level talent with ease.

"Biggie," biggie, biggie, can't you see, the Roufusport striker, terrifies me. A little Notorious B.I.G. "Hypnotize" parody there for ya. Rhodes can strike, and probably is the better boxer, but if he finds early success on the feet, he'll get taken down where he will show the weaknesses in his game.

Don't be shocked if Mikey wins this thing, but we narrowly lean toward Silva. MMAFO does believe has the hutzpah to put Rhodes away, but if he doesn't and this fight goes the full 15, it could be real trouble for the Brazilian. Its not a confident pick, but take the hometown kid FTW.

WINNER-Erick Silva by Rd.1 Submission

Daniel Sarafian (8-5) -160 vs. Antonio dos Santos (6-1) +130

ADS is a fun striker who if he gets on top of you, will unload like a rabid badger. Santos is making his debut stepping in for the oft injured Dan Miller.

Sarafian is 1-3 for Zuffa but has much more experience that the records would indicate. The Brazilian made the move to America to train and fix some of the holes in his game. The gas tank hits low often but Daniel is making the move back up to 185 which should help.

Look, Daniel is the better overall fighter, but he makes mistakes in the cage and tends to take more punishment on the feet than he should. Plus, with ADS coming on short notice, he'll probably go for broke early and catch Sarafian, the slow starter, sleeping.

Upset Pick WINNER-Antonio dos Santos by Rd.2 TKO

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (12-2-1) -365 vs. Igor Pokrajac (25-11) +275

How in the blue hell is Igor still employed with the UFC? Jesus we thought he had been cut after going 0-3-1 in his last 4 and hadn't fought since November of last year. The Croatian "Duke" is a striker who if grounded, will lose in awful fashion.

"Pezao" can crack some leg kicks, which Igor won't defend, and is a Muay Thai striker with natural power in the striking limbs.

This should be the swan song for Pokrajac who is destined for WSOF or worse. De Lima messes up Igor on the feet and if he kicks it into high gear, he might even put the "Duke" away as we thankfully say goodbye to Pokrajac.

WINNER-Marcos Rogerio de Lima by Long Name

Tom Niinimaki (21-7-1) -105 vs. Renato Moicano (8-0-1) -125

Tom the former European Abu Dhabi Combat Club winner is a blitzkrieg on the canvas and that's about it.

Mociano is a long trained Judo and Jiu-Jitsu player with a heavy top game and also sucks at striking. He's also a pretty funny fella should he get on the microphone.

The Brazilian lawyer is better than you prolly think and is better at the takedown game which will be the difference in this contest. 

WINNER-Renato Moicano by Decision

Darren Elkins (18-4) +170 vs. Hacran Dias (21-3-1) -210

Elkins is back to work rather quickly after having narrowly defeated Lucas Martins at the end of October. We all know Darren brings that grinding style that bores fans and drives opponents insane.

In an odd bit of matchmaking, Dias comes in on a 2 fight losing streak, and trains with the heralded Nova Uniao. Hacran isn't a bad grappler in his own right but he has far more to offer on the feet and shows some really good takedown defense.

This is a set up to knock down the man the fans groan about. Dias is really improving despite his record, while Elkins has stalled out in his career and is no longer evolving. Hacran wins this on points because he can mix up his attack against the 1 trick pony. This is the bout where you take a restroom break and get some snacks.

WINNER-Hacran Dias by Decision

Leandro Issa (12-4) +350 vs. Yuta Sasaki (18-1-2) -500

"Brodinho" is a Jiu-Jitsu fighter but he ain't as good as his Japanese counterpart. Zero striking.

11 wins in a row for Sasaki who brings an unorthodox style of striking but he makes his bones on the mat where he excels.

This should be all Yuta all night as Shinya Aoki's training partner rolls fairly easily.

WINNER-Yuta Sasaki by Rd.2 Submission

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Marcio Alexandre Jr. (12-1) +190 vs. Tim Means (21-6-1) -240

The "Dirty Bird" is back and has a paltry 5-3 record for Zuffa and is a lanky fighter who uses teeps well and brings a lot of movement wrecking foes in the clinch.

Junior can box on the feet as well, but he doesn't possess takedown defense or much of a ground game.

This could be a fun little scrap early, but Means is going to pull away against this not yet ready for prime time player.

WINNER-Tim Means by Decision

Vitor Miranda (9-4) +145 vs. Jake Collier (8-1) -175

Miranda is your typical kickboxer but he has the luxury of training with the Nogueira Brothers.

Missouri's Collier comes in on a 5 fight winning streak and can box as well as Vitor, but he has a more well rounded game.

WINNER-Jake Collier by Decision

UFC Fight Night Start Times
Main Card on FOX Sports 1: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 7 p.m. / 4 p.m. PT

* Update
MMAFO went 9-3 on the picks for this card.