UFC on Fox 13 Dos Santos vs. Miocic: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

December 13, 2014
US Airways Center
Phoenix, Arizona

Main Card on FOX:
Junior dos Santos (16-3) -450 vs. Stipe Miocic (12-1) +325

JDS returns a mere 14 months after one of the worst beatings ever seen in MMA. Santos got just destroyed by Cain Velasquez last October taking a hellacious beating but showing how much heart this cat really has. Junior is the best striker in the Heavyweight division, and a case can be made for the best striker in all of MMA. I mean this guy has it. From spinning back kicks that KO the likes of Mark Hunt, to a steady diet of jabs that hit you like cinder blocks, this guy can crack!

"Steepay" is a bit more well rounded, with an amateur wrestling background, but he can't strike with JDS. Miocic is far too slow and plodding. You know what he's going to throw before he does and good luck taking the Brazilian down.

JDS will be quicker, stronger, and more effective in the striking game. Should be a fun kickboxing fight, that JDS owns, prolly getting the finish as well.
WINNER-Junior Dos Anjos by Rd.4 TKO

Rafael Dos Anjos (22-7) -260 vs. Nate Diaz (18-9) +200

Nate missed weight, continuing the unsettling trend in recent MMA, by 4.6 pounds! That's not a good sign, and though MMAFO has been fans of the Brothers Diaz, we weren't going to pick Nate for this fight anyway. 

RDA has all the tools to defeat Diaz and showed a new threat in his last bout when he KO'd the normally sturdy Benson Henderson in a single round. Anjos has won 7 of his last 8 bouts showing visible improvement every time out. The Brazilian who was once known for taking opponents down and laying on them to win a boring decision, now can strike quite well, with power, while mixing in kicks with sneaky power. Let's not forget, the younger Diaz doesn't check leg kicks instead just opting to eat them. Bad idea. Rafael also has solid wrestling skills, able to shoot a strong double leg, or trip a foe to the mat. Nate struggles against wrestlers as his record indicates (losses to Rory MacDonald, Joe Stevenson, Clay Guida, etc.).

Include a year of inactivity due to a contract dispute, and you have all the makings for Nate to lose, and maybe lose badly. Don't misunderstand, we love Nate, and come the time of the fight, we will be standing, middle fingers in the air, ready for war, but we're getting tired of Nate's antics at this point.

You signed a contract. Honor it. Don't complain when you find out your buddy Gilbert Melendez got a better deal and then hold out for a year like a petulant child. Also, make the fucking weight. This is the 1st time Nate has ever missed so perhaps its an aberration. 

At any rate and off our soapbox, this is going to be RDA's night and he really needs to get more love from MMA fans and pundits, and possibly a title shot.
WINNER-Rafael Dos Anjos by Decision

Alistair Overeem (37-14,1) -300 vs. Stefan Struve (25-6) +230

Its a battle to see who has the worst chin in Heavyweight MMA? Both men like to go down in flames in dramatic fashion, and both can crack on the feet. Really though, "Ubereem" should have this. Despite the fact that Struve is returning from a serious heart condition, the loss of his father, and the fact that he couldn't compete in his last fight due to anxiety, there are problems here. Being a giant 7 footer, the "Skyscraper" doesn't fight like a tall man. He uses his reach poorly, and allows himself to get hit at all times. 

"The Demolition Man" seems to have lost some of his super powers ever since failing a pre-fight drug test (coincidence?), but he still has the best knee strikes in the big boy game and his footwork and spacing looked vastly improved in his last bout after working with the Jackson-Winkeljohn camp. 

Overeem is going to punish Struve's body early and often before starching the kid to save his job on the Zuffa roster.
WINNER-Alistair Overeem by Rd.1 TKO

Matt Mitrione (8-3) -140 vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (16-8) +110

Perennial MMAFO favorite Matt Mitrione is back! Oh how we enjoy everything about Chris Lytle's prize pupil in and out of the cage. In the cage, which is what matters here, Matt has show natural athleticism, coupled with vicious leg kicks and instant kill power. Mitrione struggles on the mat, and against skilled Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, "Napao," he must avoid the canvas like its lava.

Gabe is the gatekeeper to the elite of the Heavyweight division. He has skills everywhere and KO power in his hands and feet, but he doesn't always find a way to put his game together in the cage which has cost him dearly in the past. Gonzaga is light years ahead of Mitrione on the floor and if he can get the American down, we would not be surprised to see this fight over quick.

We'll ride with Matt to take that next step in his professional career as he uses his pretty solid takedown defense, to survive for a couple rounds before Gonzaga slows down and allows himself to be finished as he is prone to do.
WINNER-Matt Mitrione by Rd.3 TKO

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:
John Moraga (15-3) -500 vs. Willie Gates (11-4) +350

Moraga continues his career rebuild after coming up short against the Flyweight division's elite. John did show he's not out of the fight yet, besting Justin Scoggins who we thought of as a title contender (& may yet be). Moraga has some striking skills, but against Gates,should be looking for the submissions that will garner him the victory though not the stoppage.

WINNER-John Moraga by Decision

Claudia Gadelha (12-0) -275 vs. Joanna Jederzejczyk (7-0) +215

This is the bout to determine who will take on the winner of Carla Esparza and Rose Namajunas for the 2nd women's Strawweight title fight. 

Claudia hails from the Nova Uniao camp in Brazil, and is one of the most complete women's fighters of the day. Gadelha is aggressive, throws in combinations, and has those fearsome Nova Uniao leg kicks.

Joanna is more of a strike orientated fighter but she goes for power over volume and has great takedown defense, which is imperative since she isn't that good on the ground.

MMAFO has been high on Gadelha for a while now and we're not going to be shocked if she wears the gold early next year. Ya heard it here 1st folks.
WINNER-Claudia Gadelha by Decision

Joe Riggs (28-9) +200 vs. Ben Saunders (17-6-2) -260

"AIN'T NO PARTY LIKE A KILLA-B PARTY! BEN IS BETTER THAN YOU!" Now repeat in a chant at the event over and over until everyone sitting around you is sick. So yeah, we're kinda big "Killa-B" fans over here at the FO. The dude's Jiu-Jitsu has really improved under Eddie Bravo over at 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu, and Saunders is a long limbed fella who crushes like a prime Wanderlei Silva in the clinch.

Riggs was done years ago. No idea why the UFC even signed him save for taking him away from Bellator. Lose and go home and shoot yourself again Joe.
WINNER-Ben Saunders by Rd.2 Submission

Jamie Varner (21-10-1,2) -350 vs. Drew Dober (14-6) +265

Jesus, the UFC showing no love for Varner just burying the former WEC Lightweight Champion on this card. Not sure he deserves that but, Jaime is back from his broken ankle and continues to frustrate MMA fans as he loses to guys he really should beat. Jaime should beat James Krause, Abel Trujillo, and Joe Lauzon 9 times out of 10, but when he's in the cage, Varner is known for making the wrong decisions. 

All that being said, Dober has nothing to offer here. This guy is destined for the unemployment line. Varner should be able to mix in his takedowns with enough peppering to at the least, the very least, even if he's a shell of his former self, to win this on points.
WINNER-Jaime Varner by Decision

Ed Herman (22-10,1) +275 vs. Derek Brunson (12-3) -365

The slowest fighter in all of MMA, Ed Herman is back to try and put you to sleep. Not from a chokehold, but from watching his lethargic fighting style. 

Brunson is far more athletic and has some offensive tools in his belt unlike Herman who can only hope to sneak out a sub if he falls into the correct position.

This could easily be the "Worst Fight of the Year" and prolly a good time to hit the restroom or get a snack. Derek should have this going away though.
WINNER-Derek Brunson by Decision

Joe Ellenberger (15-1) -285 vs. Bryan Barberena (9-2) +225

Jake's younger brother takes Bryan down, rinse, and repeat for the full 15.
WINNER-Joe Ellenberger by Decision

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

David Michaud (8-1) -210 vs. Garett Whiteley (7-2) +170

Who the hell are these guys?

WINNER-David Michaud?

Henry Cejudo (6-0) -285 vs. Dustin Kimura (11-2) +225

Alright Cejudo. You've done, what for you is the hard part and made weight. Everything else should be academic, right? Henry is the 2008 Olympic Gold Medal winner in freestyle wrestling who we have been waiting upon to make this move up to the big dance for some time. Now we just sit back and watch "Cujo" do his thang.

WINNER-Henry Cejudo by Decision

Anthony Birchak (11-1) -230 vs. Ian Entwistle (8-2) +180

Birchak is yet another in a long line of RFA champions who have dropped their strap to play with the elite. Anthony is an experienced wrestler and throws some crazy strong striking.

Ian is a leglock specialist which, let's be honest, just doesn't work in MMA today.
WINNER-Anthony Birchak by Decision

UFC on FOX 13 Start Times
Main Card on FOX: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 3:30 p.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. PT