UFC 185 Pettis vs. Dos Anjos: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

March 14, 2015

American Airlines Center

Dallas, Texas

Perhaps we're getting a little cocky but this seems like a relatively easy card to call. Of course, our paranoia says that means we'll go 0-11 but its the game we play. Anywho, this is a great card and critics be damned, the UFC is running game early into '15 and with multiple title defenses on the horizon, things look bright. Of course, we just jinxed that with the MMA Gods. There's that paranoia again. On to the nose picking...

Main Card on PPV:

Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis (18-2) -450 vs. Rafael dos Anjos (23-7) +325

“Showtime” has been running amok on the 155ers taking 5 scalps in a row including killers like Gilbert Melendez, Benson Henderson, and Donald Cerrone and snatching his 2nd major title. The striking is creative and deadly. The kid has no fear. The jitz is slick. The wrestling is the only weak link but the takedown defense is vastly improved. Can anyone stop Pettis?

RDA snuck up on the Lightweight division winning 8 of his last 9 while showing marked improvement in all areas of the game and becoming a fully rounded threat. Coach Rafael Cordeiro has honed a sword at King’s MMA that brings natural power in now technical hands while keeping range, leg kicks that would make Pedro Rizzo proud, and Jiu-Jitsu as his base. Anjos dismantled Nate Diaz and stopped Benson Henderson in his last two outings. 

RDA must put Pettis against the cage where he struggles to get his highlight reel work done. Anjos will show no fear coming in which is where “Pretty Tony” will catch him time and time again. RDA won’t get blown out and will show moments of contention, but the speed and precision in what is likely to be a kickboxing affair will keep the gold around Pettis’ waist in an entertaining Main Event.
WINNER-Anthony Pettis by Rd.3 Submission

Strawweight Champion Carla Esparza (10-2) -165 vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (8-0) +135

The “Cookie Monster” is upset at the world for not giving her props and rightly so. Esparza came into TUF 20 as the favorite, cruised to the finals, and then taught beloved Rose Namajunas about experience. A great comparison (credit to Sherdog & specifically Patrick Wyman) to Carla would be Frankie Edgar early into his UFC career. Esparza shows good volume in her striking moving in and out while keeping herself protected at range. All this is just to set up the lightning quick and stellar in form takedowns to put bitches in her world. Carla is nasty on the floor with a heavy top game and wrestling that few women can contend with at this time in the sport.

Jedrzejczyk (say Yunjaychick) is a striker with speedy combinations, decent power in her hands, and those vicious elbows MMAFO loves so much. Her weakness is, uh-oh, wrestling. Yup. The Polish fighter has great takedown defense but she is going up against a never-say-die wrestler who will not stop coming even if the takedowns fail early. Still, we really enjoy Joanna who is just plain mean and likes to talk shit.

Its all there on paper. Carla survives the early rounds and refuses to stay in striking distance with Jedrzejczyk while slickly timing her takedowns to come from behind on the cards to retain the belt in her 1st defense. And yet, we roll with the Pole. Why you ask? Because Jedrzejczyk has a mean streak reminiscent of Ronda Rousey and hits like Anthony Johnson "talking" with a woman. Joanna shocks Carla with the power early and puts away the notoriously slow starting Esparza before she know what hit her.
Upset Pick WINNER-Joanna Jedrzejczyk by Rd.2 TKO

Johny Hendricks (16-3) -375 vs. Matt Brown (19-12) +285

This fight has fucking brutal written all over it. Both of these guys hit to kill and can take a beating. We are giddy with anticipation. 

“Bigg Rigg” done fucked up accepting this fight as Champion Robbie Lawler sneakily returned from vacation and signed to fight Rory MacDonald while he was booked. Mr. Bass Pro must be pissed. We fully believe Hendricks beat Lawler twice already but that has only motivated the Oklahoman. An example must be made.

Hello example. Brown is tough as hell and fun to watch with his kill em all style, but he isn’t a title contender plain and simple. The guy takes a lot of dome shots and one from Johny is all that is needed no matter who you are. 

Hendricks can out-wrestle Brown or just beat the ever loving shit outta him. Johny is just better everywhere and if Hendricks has ever seen a tape on Brown, he’ll attack his body and make this a quick night. Hopefully they brawl a bit but the winner is not in question.
WINNER-Johny Hendricks by Rd.2 TKO

Roy Nelson (20-10) +170 vs. Alistair Overeem (38-14) -210

And now for some heavy hitters in the Heavyweight class. Both big men hit like a ton of bricks, but only one man here has a glaring weakness in his chin. If “Ubereem” thinks he is going to take Nelson down and roll him like he did “Skyscraper” he is sadly mistaken. The years are coming up on Nelson but he’s still got this. We worry a bit about Nelson slowing against Overeem’s leg kicks, but his eyes will close none the less.
Upset Pick WINNER-Roy Nelson by Rd.1 KO

Chris Cariaso (17-6) +400 vs. Henry Cejudo (7-0) -600

Cariaso is pretty good right? He just fought for the title and…..okay, knock that shit off. Chris didn't deserve the title shot and was simply a sacrifice. The former Gold Medal winning Olympian need only battle the scale here. Once in the cage, “Cujo” will do as he pleases taking Cariaso down and embarrassing him there. Simple.
WINNER-Henry Cejudo by Decision

Prelims on FX:

Ross Pearson (16-8) -380 vs. Sam Stout (20-10-1) +290

Another striker’s delight on this card as two Lightweights duke it out to see who remains within the 155 ranks. 

Ross got jobbed out to Diego Sanchez in disgusting fashion, but looked slower than molasses against Al Iaquinta last November. Still, Pearson is a solid boxer and when he mixes up his attack he is at his best. Ross’ inability to cut off the cage against Al was his undoing as his lack of speed necessitates he use angles wisely. 

Stout has never impressed (9-9 in the UFC) and is on an obvious decline. The “Hands of Stone” were always overrated in terms of power, and the guy is only a kickboxer. 

Pearson should out strike and out think Stout to earn the judges nod. However, we’ve seen Ross get screwed before and he needs to have his head right and make in fight adjustments which he did not do last out. Fight smart and win Ross.
WINNER-Ross Pearson by Decision

Elias Theodorou (10-0) -340 vs. Roger Narvaez (7-1) +260

The Canadian “Spartan” is undefeated (2-0 for Zuffa) and yet has not shown anything impressive as of yet (show us something kid). Elias is quite aggressive and that will come into play against the sometimes passive Narvaez. Roger isn’t a good fighter but this is a fun meeting of two guys who just defeated Luke Barnatt. So, you know, fun facts and all.
WINNER-Elias Theodorou by Decision

Daron Cruickshank (16-5,1) -150 vs. Beneil Dariush (9-1) +120

A fun mix of styles here as the exciting spinning shit of Cruickshank meets the time tested Jiu-Jitsu of Dariush.

If you follow MMAFO at all you know we like Beneil and have stood beside this cat when others picked against him. That car comes screeching to a halt here. We’re not awed by the flash Daron brings but the power, speed, and versatility. Beniel can be hurt and doesn’t respond quickly enough to myriad attacks. Further more, if Dariush is behind early on the cards, which we believe he will be, he doesn’t possess the offense to come back and win the judges favor. Cruickshank wins on points sprawling and brawling his way to the 15.
WINNER-Daron Cruickshank by Decision

Jared Rosholt (11-2) -315 vs. Josh Copeland (9-1) +245

Yuck. No thanks. Hit the bathroom kids.
WINNER-Jared Rosholt by Snoozer

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Sergio Pettis (12-1) -500 vs. Ryan Benoit (7-3) +350

The Younger Pettis on the card drops to Flyweight for the 1st time in the UFC, but not the 1st time in his career. Both men are strikers but Pettis is light years ahead of Benoit and this is a scrimmage for Sergio via Zuffa design.
WINNER-Sergio Pettis by Decision

Jake Lindsey (9-2) +375 vs. Joe Duffy (12-1) -550

Jake Lindsey is heralded for being the last man to defeat Conor McGregor (& Norman Parke) waay back in 2010. “Irish Joe” is a former professional boxer with hard knees coming up when you are unprepared. 

The “Librarian” (seriously, the Librarian?) is 0-2 for Zuffa and here to set up a potential date with the “Notorious” one should he fall to Jose Aldo. MMAFO thinks the Zuffa gang is being a bit too obvious with this one.
WINNER-Joe Duffy by Decision

Germaine de Randamie (4-3) +130 vs. Larissa Pacheco (10-1) -160

Larissa has never seen a judge in her career win or lose. Pacheco is a thrilling attack dog who hangs in the pocket and looks for the sub consistently on the canvas.

Germaine is a physical specimen but she makes mistakes in fights and can’t put together a solid game plan to save her life.

This fight could go either way as the ladies are well matched, but we thinks Larissa will be able to exploit any and all errors for the win in some fashion or another.
WINNER-Larissa Pacheco by Rd.3 Submission

UFC 185 Start Times

Main Card on Pay-Per-View: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT

Prelims on FX: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT