UFC Fight Night 63 Mendes vs. Lamas: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

April 4, 2014
Patriot Center
Fairfax, Virginia

Don’t forget MMA fight fans, this is an early Saturday card so remember the fun begins at noon central time! Its not a bad little card so tune in and enjoy some free fight fun on Fox. Luke Barnatt vs. Clint Hester has been cancelled due to injury but Masvidal and Iaquinta have been talking mad shit, Mendes vs. Lamas is stellar, Gray Maynard may shatter before our eyes, and goddamnit, the “Carpenter” is back! Enjoy the anarchy.

Main Card on FOX Sports 1:
Chad Mendes (16-2) -450 vs. Ricardo Lamas (15-3) +325

This is a fun fight between two just brutal ass kickers atop the Featherweight division. The problem, is that neither can defeat the Champion Jose Aldo and they are fighting for the silver medal. Some people are predicting a slow and methodical pace but they are crazy. These guys know that another shot at gold requires them to not only win, but win big and in a way that garners them the attention they need to compete with a Conor McGregor for fan interest. 

The fact is, “Money” is the better fighter in every single area and MMAFO fully expects him to win this fight, though in an entertaining brawl. Then, and only then, Team Alpha Male prays for a McGregor win in July to put them back in the gold hunt.
WINNER-Chad Mendes by Rd.3 TKO

Jorge Masvidal (28-8) -125 vs. Al Iaquinta (11-3-1) -105

Al stepped in for Benson Henderson and this quickly became a grudge match.   Jorge has stated in multiple interviews that Al isn’t on his level and that he is disappointed at not getting someone the level of “Bendo” as a replacement even to the point of saying this matchup is like, “a boy taking on a man.” Iaquinta responded by saying, “Everyone I’ve talked to says he’s not real intelligent. He sounds pretty dumb.” Al calling someone else dumb. Oh the humanity.

Anywho, Masvidal is a well rounded fighter who is good everywhere but doesn’t do anything definitively well. Jorge has good head movement which is rare in MMA, using angles well with his striking and mixing in takedowns to keep things fresh. ATT’s “Gamebred” is very durable but he does start a bit slow and never seems to kick into high gear.

Al be no geenious, but his striking is on point and has brought some real power in his punches and high kicks. The left hook is nasty and cracking leg kicks slow opponents while he sneaks in those standing elbows we love so much. Iaquinta has made multiple mistakes on the ground in the past but its doubtful these men will spend much time there.

This is a really close fight but even if these guys can control their tempers, it is likely to play out on the feet as they go blow for blow showing their manly bravado. In that instance, Al has a slight advantage with his power, speed, and Jorge has been dropped in his last 3 fights. We’ll take the “Long Island Idiot” in a close but fun scrap.

Take a drink every time you hear the beloved Matt Serra scream from cage side. Love ya, “Terra.”
Upset Pick WINNER-Al Iaquinta by Decision


Michael Chiesa (11-2) -380 vs. Mitch Clarke (11-2) +290

Both of these guys are pretty good grapplers and MMAFO has zero interest in either man. Its not based upon their game, but their worth as people. Just don’t care.
WINNER-Michael Chiesa by Decision

Julianna Pena (5-2) -350 vs. Milana Dudieva (11-3) +265

The cocky to the point of snotty Pena is back, after suffering a disastrous knee injury the benched her over a year ago halting her TUF momentum. All the pundits talk of Pena’s “potential” but she still has a lot to prove. Julianna is an aggressive striker but her footwork was awful that last time we saw her and she gets out of control often. Pena is much better working in the clinch with a constant assault of knees and bombs from top position.

The “Dudet”  has a hard overhand right but her striking is abysmal. Milana also does her best work in the clinch and is good on top but she goes for wild submissions. She’s basically just a tough Russian.

The UFC knows what they are doing scheduling this for Pena. This is meant to get her back into the groove while she checks out the stability of her cybernetic knee. If you think the UFC doesn’t scheme for TUF winners you are just high. Julianna has this all day. Also, would bang.
WINNER-Julianna Pena by Rd.2 Submission


Clay Guida (31-15) -240 vs. Robbie Peralta (18-5) +190

CLAY GUIDA WITH STRAIGHT HAIR

The “Carpenter” took 7 months off after losing to Dennis Bermudez in ’14. Guida has devolved in recent years going 2-4 and not looking good while doing it. Guida has just never developed a striking game to keep opponents honest and relies almost completely on crazy rapid movement and relentless takedowns. MMAFO has been in the Clay Guida business since 2006, and we’ll always cheer for the guy, but he just does not possess the game to make much noise at Featherweight.

Peralta is essentially the opposite of Guida in that he is a good striker and just terrible at the grappling game. Sprawl and brawl are his keys.

Despite the harsh criticisms of our boy Clay, we do favor him in this match-up. Peralta is a good striker but he leaves himself wide open for takedowns which is exactly where Guida will be looking. The “Carpenter” also has that odd movement that opponents struggle to adapt to, indomitable heart, and the wrestling skills to make Rob inactive off his back for the full 15.
WINNER-Clay Guida by Decision


Dustin Poirier (16-4) -170 vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-1) +140

The “Diamond” is making the rare move up a weight class (to Lightweight) after getting dispatched by Conor McGregor almost 7 months ago. The ATT fighter is savvy everywhere and though he has only been (T)KO’d once in his career (in his last bout), Dustin gets dropped from a punch in almost every fight. Luckily for Poirier, CDF is not a striker.

CDF is your classic Brazilian black belt fighter with decent trips and tosses to get you in his world. Some decent kicks and punches come from Ferreira but nothing to write home about.

Dustin should have this fight walking away. The 26 year old isn’t even in his prime yet and has improved almost every time out. Poirier can hang on the mat with some slick submissions of his own, and will have an extensive advantage on the feet. Its your day Dustin.
WINNER-Dustin Poirier by Rd.2 TKO


Prelims on FOX Sports 1:
Liz Carmouche (9-5) -120 vs. Lauren Murphy (8-1) -110

Two hard ass grappling ladies are looking to grind their way back into title contention at Bantamweight. Both of these women fight in similar ways, forcing opponents to the mat and enforcing a crushing top game to overwhelm their opponents. We at MMAFO find Liz to be a great human being and role model, but Lauren, the former Invicta champ is a bruiser. Murphy will have the size and power advantage and she’ll likely win this night based upon her volume in a close bout. Murphy can also throw up submission attempts in bulk from her back while Liz, not-so-much. We'll be cheering for you though Liz!
Upset Pick WINNER-Lauren Murphy by Split Decision


Gray Maynard (11-6-1) +100 vs. Alexander Yakovlev (21-6-1) -130

Oh Jesus, Gray Maynard is back. Its crazy that back in 2011, Gray was a proper judges card away from being the UFC Lightweight Champion, and since has competed with a 1-4 record, all of the losses being brutal (T)KO losses. The 3 losses in a row were to top level talent (Ross Pearson, Nate Diaz, TJ Grant) but the chin of Maynard is obviously highly suspect at this juncture. The “Bully” has his amateur wrestling credentials and has improved his striking greatly during the years, but he just can’t seem to take a punch and it has gotten to the point where one fears for his safety.

The (ahem) “Thunder of the North,” has lost 2 in a row and is dropping down from Welterweight to 155. The wrong handed Yakovlev isn’t a great athlete, and doesn’t swing with much power, but he is decently well rounded.

If ever there was a time for Gray to finally win a fight, it is now. This is a fight built to give Maynard some bit of charity and if he can’t win this, Zuffa will retire him since he refuses to make the decision. Gray should be able to win this on his wrestling game alone, but that fragile jaw is the looming worry. One last time we roll with the “Bully” but not with much confidence.
Upset Pick WINNER-Gray Maynard by Decision


Shamil Abdurahimov (15-2) -270 vs. Timothy Johnson (8-1) +210

The Dagestani invasion continues as Abdurahimov gets his shot in the Zuffa ranks. Shamil has upside finishing 11 of his 15 wins but he has been rather inactive fighting once a year for the last 3 years. Good power in the boxers hands and some solid clinch work.

TJ is a wrestler who defeated Travis Wiuff and that’s the extent of his career highlights from the past and the future.
WINNER-Shamil Abdurahimov by Awful Decision


Ron Stallings (12-7) +110 vs. Justin Jones (3-1) -140

Ole Ronny got a gift shot at the UFC roster stepping in to face Uriah Hall on short notice in January and that was his ceiling. Stallings is prolly a nice guy and all but he’s a minor circuit kinda guy.

“Lazy Bones” is a heavy fisted southpaw who has potential but it is far too early to access where he can go in the sport. Even so, Jones has the natural ability, bla, bla, bla, nice kicks and should win at the very least on points.
WINNER-Justin Jones by Decision


UFC Fight Night Start Times
Main Card on FOX Sports 1: 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT

Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 11 a.m. ET / 8 a.m. PT