UFC Fight Night 74 Holloway vs. Oliveira: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

August 23, 2015

SaskTel Centre

Saskatoon, Saskatchewon, Canada

Aaaaand, MMAFO is back bitches. After a much needed rest we have returned as hungry as the young bucks heading up this card in 

Saskatoon. Saskatoon? Really? We always thought that was a made up place like Gotham or Timbuktu. What's that? Timbuktu is real! Anywho, we've got a card that is filled with potential and we have missed our beloved MMA action as of late. Also don't forget fight fans, this is a Sunday card, and not a Saturday card. Schedule your time appropriately. 

Main Card on FOX Sports 1:

Max Holloway (13-3) -225 vs. Charles Oliveira (20-4, 1) +175

So for the "Main Event" we've got two young guns on the uptick and looking to crack the elite level of Featherweights. Both 

The "Blessed" Hawaiian has won 6 straight including a surprising drubbing of Cub Swanson last out. Holloway has really impressed since losing a decision to Conor McGregor in '13 tightening up his already blistering striking game with some spectacular angles and high volume output. Max is generally hard to hit and has tight takedown defense, decent ground control, and some subs, though he generally likes to do his work standing. 

"Do Bronx" is a killer who is always on the hunt for the finish. The Jiu-Jitsu ace has really put the stand up to task as of late working his way into the clinch where he can destroy with knees or take you down for the tap. Oliveira shows no fear in pulling guard and his sharp elbows would make Kenny Florian proud. If'n this hits the mats Charles can transition like it ain't no thang while chaining together submissions to keep his foe on his heels.

Both men put on a good pace, are long and lean, and are very aggressive so this is gonna be a good one! Getting inside is the key to Olivera's success and that will be his biggest challenge. Max works from distance and has shown a penchant for countering well against those looking to come in. Holloway's takedown defense is rock solid and in a shootout, you have to like the Hawaiian's odds. Expect a good row but Max will pull away on the judges cards as the fight progresses and Charles fades as his game plan falls short.
WINNER-Max Holloway by Decision

Neil Magny (15-4) +150 vs. Erick Silva (18-5, 1) -185

Ole Mags jumps in on late notice to face one of the most inconsistent and over hyped fighters on Zuffa's roster. Neil's a big long fella who likes to strike without the aid of any real power so volume is his key. Magny has some good clinch work as well and can hold his own from the top position but as Demian Maia showed in his last effort, the ground game is a work in progress at best.

Oh, Erick, Erick, Erick. What to make of this cat? Silva is well rounded with good speed for his size and natural power for the division but oh how he falls apart in the blink of an eye. The Brazilian can really make poor choices in the cage but consider that he has lost to the likes of Matt Brown, Dong Hyun Kim, and Jon Fitch while peppering in some wins as well.

Honestly, we have very little faith in either man but Magny's 7 fight winning streak was truly distorted as he fought nobody of note along the way. Neil's skills just aren't that impressive as his pillow fists bounce of chins for points, but not keeping enemies honest. Silva has the giant advantage on the floor and his power will wake up the American early and often. It may take a couple rounds but we don't see Neil making it to the final bell unless he's on his bike. The "Tiger" hurts Magny standing and then swarms for the tap finish.
WINNER-Erick Silva by Rd.2 Submission

Patrick Cote (21-9) +110 vs. Josh Burkman (28-12) -140

You all know the rules by now as we sing, "Cote, Cote, Cote, Cote... Cote, Cote."And repeat. The Canadian "Predator" has gone 4-2 on his latest run in the UFC but we can't say the fan favorite has looked good. Pat has appeared slowed by time and hasn't fought with the gusto he did in the past. The power will always remain in his hands but the writing is on the wall.

Burkman isn't a world beater either, and never was, and he's also slowing quite a bit in recent times. Though Josh doesn't realize how average he is at this level, he does have enough to rule the day here switching his boxing stance to confuse the southpaw and using his superior grappling skills to at the very least, win the judges favor.

We will not, be cheering for this outcome however. Do it to it Cote.
WINNER-Josh Burkman by Decision

Chad Laprise (11-0) -350 vs. Francisco Trinaldo (17-4) +265

The undefeated "Disciple" will have the Canadian crowd in his corner as he brings that Michael Bisping style (we coined it before Sherdog haters) of striking with some kicks involved but little power. 

"Massaranduba" has a lot of power in his game and uses his southpaw game well. He relies on said power too often and we're not that impressed with is overall pace.

Laprise should win here unless he gets caught with something big but we're not that interested one way or the other.
WINNER-Chad Laprise by Decision

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (6-1) -250 vs. Tony Sims (12-2) +195

The "Quebec Kid" is big for 155's and will look to abuse you on the canvas where he is heavy as they come. Olivier will work you over to force a mistake with his strength and has a judo background. Dude's got a good couple of kicks but the ground is where he kills.

"2.0" has won 4 in a row and is a legitimate pro boxer who will mix in some takedowns just to keep you guessing a bit. Don't know a whole lot about his game so far.

The percentages have to lead toward the Canadian but Sims is no joke. Mercier should not mess around on the feet instead opting to safely deal with this fight where he excels. If he does this, it will be his night.
WINNER-Oliver Aubin-Mercier by Decision

maryna_moroz_fn (Instagram)

Maryna Moroz (6-0) -200 vs. Valerie Letourneau (7-3) +160

Moroz burst onto the scene upsetting our beloved Joanne Calderwood with some quick, strong striking, and obviously some slick submissions. We haven't learned a ton in her short victory but she will pull guard at a moment's notice though her defensive game is lacking.

Canada's "Trouble" has won 6 of her last 7 (the loss to #1 contender Claudia Gadelha) using a nice jab and leg kicks that she has perfected at ATT. She is a point fighter not a finisher.

MMAFO was really impressed with Maryna in her debut with such an aggressive attack and nose for the finish. Valerie will be the better striker for sure, but she lacks any real power and thus Moroz can look for her openings to get this down into her world for the sub win.
WINNER-Maryna Moroz by Rd.2 Submission

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:

Yves Jabouin (20-10) +160 vs. Felipe Arantes (16-7-1) -200

Dunno & don't care.

WINNER-Felipe Arantes by Decision

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (13-2-1) -150 vs. Nikita Krylov (18-4) +120

Does anyone know what to make of the Ukranian "Scarface?" He does look quite a bit better at Light Heavy but the lanky fighter can be quite sloppy striking but with knockout power. Krylov also has 11 subs on his record but he made a ridiculous mistake against Ovince St. Preux on the ground to get tapped last year.

"Pezao" is a Brazilian striker who has looked solid in his 1st two outings for Zuffa. Homie is big, bad, and fights smarter than his counterpart here crushing him with the power advantage. As long as he stays off the ground that is.
WINNER-Marcos Rogerio de Lima by Rd.1 TKO

Sam Stout (21-11-1) +115 vs. Frankie Perez (9-2) -145

Anyone else surprised every single time they notice Stout is still fighting? Dude has nothing left and was little more than a boxer in MMA to begin with.

Perez is a student of Ricardo Almeida who is a slick submission player who will find a way to get Sammy down for his final appearance in the UFC.

WINNER-Frankie Perez by Rd.2 Submission

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Chris Kelades (8-2) +140 vs. Chris Beal (10-1) -170

The "Real Deal" Beal lost for the 1st time in his young career to Irishman Neil Seery in January but we thinks this only makes him better. Chris needed that loss to really focus and hopefully anger him. Chris is really talented boxer and the rest of the game is coming along. He should own Kelades who was a nice story when he came in but he just isn't that good.

WINNER-Chris Beal by Decision

Shane Campbell (11-3) +220 vs. Elias Silverio (11-1) -280

"Shaolin" is a kickboxer who lost his debut (on short notice) but puts together some nice attacks and has tough defense.

"Xuxu" fancies himself a striker but he doesn't have the power to enforce it.

We'll take the Upset here as MMAFO finds Campbell to be the better striker and are surprised a bit at the odds.

Upset Pick WINNER-Shane Campbell by Decision

Misha Cirkunov (9-2) -500 vs. Daniel Jolly (5-0) +350

The undefeated "Werewolf of Texas" meets Latvia's Cirkunov in a "who the fuck are these two guys?" match. Apparently by what we've read, Misha (isn't that a girl's name?) is a judo/wrestler now by way of Canada and is somewhat of a prospect. So, yeah, sounds good we suppose.

"Tea" Jolly is also coming in on short notice.

WINNER-Misha Cirkunov by Rd.1 Submission

UFC Fight Night 74 Start Times

Main Card on FOX Sports 1: 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT

Preliminary Card on FOX Sports 1: 7 p.m ET / 4 p.m. PT

Preliminary Card on UFC Fight Pass: 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT