UFC 196 er, UFC Fight Night 82 Hendricks vs. Thompson: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

Feb. 6, 2016

MGM Grand Garden Arena

Las Vegas

Main Card on FOX Sports 1:

Heavyweight Champion Fabricio Werdum versus Cain Velasquez has been CANCELLED

Johny Hendricks (17-3) -225 vs. Stephen Thompson (11-1) +175

After losing the UFC Welterweight Championship in controversial fashion to Robbie Lawler in their rematch, things have gotten squirrelly. "Bigg Rigg" missed his proposed bout against contender Tyron Woodley after a botched weight cut due to an "intestinal blockage," a "kidney stone attack," all due to an excess of dear meat. It was a debacle of massive proportions and the notoriously post fight heavy Hendricks went on attack gaining a new nutritionist and posting a picture of himself earlier in the week looking svelte, jacked (see picture posted), and looking a bit like a serial killer.

 

"Bigg Rigg" brings massive knockout power in his left hand and an ability to control distance with his jab while you worry about his often praised wrestling experience. Hendricks is also durable as they come having never been stopped in 20 career bouts or even badly hurt.

"Wonderboy" has gone an impressive 6-1 including running off 5 in a row backed behind his creative karate style. Thompson is adept at keeping his head off the center line after an attack and employs a nice takedown defense. This is quite a leap up in competition for the lad though but its great he'll get the opportunity to see just where he is at on the 170 pecking order.

Its hard for us to see a way in which Stephen wins this. Sure he can maintain distance and snap away at Johny from a distance, but other than stealing a round on volume, he'll have trouble doing any real damage on the "Bigg Rigg." Hendricks will be more than happy "to eat a few to give a few," and that's damage Stefon will not be able to endure. Johny takes the wunderkind to the new club BOOOOOOOOOF, for a round the clock beatdown party narcolepting ze kid with smothering top control, nipple pinching, G&P, and slathering the holly hell out of the whole thing with venison drenched in panic.

WINNER-Johny Hendricks by Rd.3 TKO

Roy Nelson (20-12) -165 vs. Jared Rosholt (14-2) +135

Chubby, chubby, tit bounce is upon us. "Big Country" has lost 5 of his last 6, and at the tender age of 39, he's looking less and less interested in doing much more than collecting a massive amount of punishments and a smaller amount of money. 

Rosholt is the kid on the up but his ceiling isn't far away. The "most Boring Man in MMA," has amassed a 6-1 record for Zuffa and has done so against mediocre competition and with fundamental wrestling skills that halt action and do little else. Its awful to watch.

So either Nelson lamps Jared with a big bomb, or we sit and watch 15 sweaty jiggly moments of uninspired action. We're so hoping for Nelson to win that's the only scenario we are willing to entertain here.

WINNER-Roy Nelson by Rd.1 KO

Ovince Saint Preux (18-7) -400 vs. Rafael Cavalcante (12-6, 1) +300

"OSP" has won 6 of 8 for Zuffa but his last outing was a submission loss to Glover Teixeira in his initial foray into the elite level of the Light Heavy division. Ovince can do a bit of everything but he hasn't really showed an ability to step into the next level. This guy just cannot sustain the speed necessary to utilize his striking skills as he fades in almost every contest. 

"Feijao" has not been able to translate his Strikeforce success into a profitable UFC career. 1-3 for Cavalcante and he hasn't looked much like his former self after the PED issue that cost him against Mike Kyle back in '12. Rafael is a big hitter nuff said.

With all this hate we've slung upon these combatants, it should be noted we just don't feel as though these guys have much of a real future in Top 10. Even so, we like "OSP" to be more accurate with his strikes and overwhelm Cavalcante with volume early before ending things with a tap.

WINNER-Ovince St. Preux by Submission

Joseph Benavidez (23-4) -450 vs. Zack Makovsky (19-6) +325

Finally, we have an interesting bout that should be above the last two we have prognosticated upon. Joe "B-Wan Kenobi" is a perennial #1 contender in the Flyweight division who just can't get past the gold wearing mouse. Demetrious Johnson is the only man "Jobama" has lost to in the UFC while winning 10 times. "Beefcake" has skills in every area of MMA and is a dangerous, dangerous little fella.

"Fun Size" is another Flyweight who can do it all though he has found less success falling against John Dodson and Jussier da Silva.  Zack has gone to Canada's Tristar camp to make improvements.

Both men closely resemble the others in style but to date, you cannot pick against "Joe Jitsu." Benavidez is a Flyweight size better than Makovsky in about every area. Its gonna take a lot of quick learning from Firas Zahabi for Zack to find the Upset here. Its 15 minutes of quick fluttering action with "Jokozuna" hoisting his arms yet again.

WINNER-Joseph Benavidez by Decision

Misha Cirkunov (10-2) -1100 vs. Alex Nicholson (6-1) +650

Didja see Cirkunov in his debut last August. This...guy...is scary! The Latvian crusher looks terrifying but he'll really shock you on the ground. Misha has black belts in Judo and Jiu-Jitsu and will brawl to get you there.

The debuting Floridian wants to grind out a win in as rough of a way as possible.

Truthfully, we know very little about Alex but we're so afraid of Cirkunov we're not picking against him out of fear.

WINNER-Misha Cirkunov by Rd.2 Murder

Mike Pyle (26-11-1) +145 vs. Sean Spencer (12-4) -175

"Quicksand" is as grizzled and intelligent a veteran as you are going to find in the UFC. You go to the ground with Pyle at your own risk but at age 40 Mike has lost a bit of his sturdiness but the mullet game is still strong.

Spencer is 12 years younger and looking for some consistency at 170. "Black Magic" likes to use quick footwork to make himself hard to find while racking up points.

Don't see it. Just don't see a ton from Sean and we know Mikey has a few tricks left in the old toolbox. We look for the Upset here as Pyle can avoid being hurt here and will outsmart the youngsta.

Upset Pick WINNER-Mike Pyle by Rd.2 Submission

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:

Josh Burkman (27-12, 1) -175 vs. KJ Noons (13-8, 1) +145

Its the oldie versus the never was. 

"Nobody's Warrior" almost found success in the WSOF but departed for the homeland of the UFC. It's been a harsh return as Josh is really 0-3 though the Hector Lombard loss was squashed due to the whole PED thing. The vet is good everywhere but no killer. The chokes have really kept Burkman alive late in his career but he fades fast now and is shop worn.

KJ has always been a boxer wearing MMA clothing and has gone 3-6-1 since getting his wish of a rematch with Nick Diaz. How'd that go "Hawaiian King?" Noons is simply a boxer.

What can you say here? As long as Josh gets a few takedowns he should be able to use enough skills that don't include boxing to take control of the bout and get the judges nod as we say so long to KJ and his "MMA" career.

WINNER-Josh Burkman by Decision

Derrick Lewis (13-4, 1) +120 vs. Damian Grabowski (20-2) -150

Grabowski is a serviceable heavy at 35 years young, but he has to survive the ungodly power of Lewis. Derrick isn't the most talented fighter in the world but his ridiculous power carries him through tough situations. Its all about surviving the excruciating minutes that destroy Derrick's cardio. We think he lasts long enough to put out Damian on a stretcher before the wheels fall off.

Upset Pick WINNER-Derrick Lewis by Rd.1 KO

Ray Borg (9-1) -285 vs. Justin Scoggins (10-2) +225

The "Tazmexican Devil" has looked like a killer Flyweight contender winning his last 3 and only stumbling once in his career against ultra-tough Dustin Ortiz. Borg is a monster scrambling grappler with an insane pace.

"Scoggy" was MMAFO's boy in 2013 and we expected him to take over the 125 world. Things were running right until Justin ran into the aforementioned Dustin Ortiz and John Moraga. The 23 year old is a lightening scrambler who transitions from move to move like a fighting Picasso. 

Scoggins takes a lot of risks when he fights whether it's throwing crazy combinations or looking to earn the tap while in a frenzy. Borg can make use of these moments to employ his style and sneak in a slick submission or at the least take control of the action. Should be a good one.

WINNER-Ray Borg by Rd.3 Submission

Noad Lahat (9-1) -315 vs. Diego Rivas (6-0) +245

AKA's Lahat is a talented Judo playa who can mix in the takedowns to set up the sub that makes opponents surrender. 

Rivas is an undefeated lad who loves to get into a striking war to rep for Chile.

This could be a really fun scrap but Noad has more skills and the percentages lean to him. This will be a fun one but Diego doesn't have enough experience to hang... yet.

WINNER-Noad Lahat by Rd.3 Submission

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Mickey Gall (1-0) -600 vs. Mike Jackson (0-0) +400

The "CM Punk Sweepstakes" or the "who gives a shit" double down between two guys that have no business being in the UFC while taking away paychecks from hard working nose to the grindstone legitimate prospects. 

Gall has a single professional fight in which Dana White was sitting ringside while filming his new reality show "Looking For A Fight," young Mickey called out CM Punk, and thus the Miller Brothers student deserves a shot in the big time. [MMAFO shakes head and walks away]

Mr. Jackson has not had a single pro fight, or appeared on the time worn TV show concept like TUF, but he's fought as a boxer and kickboxer in some aspect. Mike is a photographer for Legacy FC and this feels like a twisted "Make-a-wish" for a wannabe. 

What, why even break this down? What is there to break down? The gall of the UFC booking this for Mickey to win and face Phil Brooks making Bellator's scheduling look legitimate.

WINNER-Mickey Gall by something

Artem Lobov (11-11-1) -155 vs. Alex White (10-2) +125

Atrem "I Got A UFC Job Because I'm Buds With Conor McGregor And Still Needed A Second Chance To Get In The UFC" Lobov is a journeyman fighter with strong striking ability.

The "Spartan" was undefeated before joining Zuffa's roster and now he's on a two-fight skid. White is decently well rounded and as long as he can avoid that one shot KO, he's in business.

Upset Pick WINNER-Alex White by Decision

UFC Fight Night 82 Start Times

Main Card on FOX Sports 1: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Preliminary Card on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT

Preliminary Card on UFC Fight Pass: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT