UFC 196 McGregor vs. Diaz: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

March 5, 2016

MGM Grand Garden Arena

Las Vegas, Nevada

Main Card on Pay-Per-View:

Conor McGregor (19-2) -380 vs. Nate Diaz (18-10) +290

"There's only 1, Conor McG-" WAIT! Hold the song. This is the one time MMAFO isn't riding with the "Notorious" one. MMAFO has been 209 since the jump and if'n you think we're going to bail on the younger Diaz now, you are a crazy person! This bout is much more exciting now that Lightweight Champion Rafael dos Anjos has dropped out with a broken foot, or broken vagina as Conor contends. Diaz has won the McGregor Derby and stands to make serious bank he has deserved for quite some time. McGregor looks to continue his legend and set up something epic for UFC 200 this summer. 

Conor wants to set up everything to get foes to eat that brutal left hook that murks people. McGregor can kick that planted right leg and put his power boxing (that has stopped 81% of his opponents!) on the younger Diaz. The Irishman can snipe at angles and throw some spinning shit just for fun.

Nate wants to bring volume, volume, volume striking into play. The "Stockton Slap" just gets your attention and then the sheer magnitude of hits coming your way depletes the body and takes your soul! With Conor's "notorious" losses coming by submission, and Nate being an excellent Jiu-Jitsu player, it would make sense to try and get this thing to the ground though Diaz does not possess the best takedown attempts. It matters not. Nate wants a war as do the fans.

It's just going to be too much power for Nate to absorb and keep coming on such short notice. Diaz is very hittable and prides himself on his strong chin which is exactly how you do not fight McGregor. The style Josh Thomson used to stop Nate is exactly what Conor does well only at a higher and more savage level. The Irishman chews up Nate's planted leg as well and this is going to be a nasty beating. Still, never count out 209 and his ability to take you out of the game mid-fight with taunts and blistering skill. All the MMA fans win with this one and MMAFO hopes we get the pick wrong!

WINNER-Conor McGregor by Rd.4 TKO

Bantamweight Champion Holly Holm (10-0) -345 vs. Miesha Tate (17-5) +285

"Double H" is back after dispatching the "unbeatable" Ronda Rousey and becoming a massive star. When the "Preacher's Daughter" extends her long gloriously beautiful legs, the stretch the length of the Octagon reaching the opponent from anywhere. Holm is a stellar counter striker with the power of a former professional boxer and a calm in the cage as she stays so true to the game plan. Holly can move like a poisonous butterfly avoiding collisions when necessary, feinting, and landing a myriad of hard kicks to the oncoming foe. Holm's endurance is great.

"Cupcake" does have some options in this fight. Tate is an underrated grappler who, if she can get you there, will run game on the canvas. Miesha is also known for her tenacity as few women in the game are as mentally strong and durable as she. The boxing has improved greatly but a brawl with the champ seems like a terrible idea. 

Unfortunately for us Miesha Tate fans, she comes calling much like Rousey did against Holm. Miesha bully's her way in trying to get clinched up for a takedown and that is not going to work against Holly who crunches her up on the attack. Tate is smart enough to learn from Ronda's mistakes but how will she close the distance issue with her set of skills? Also, good luck trying to keep Holm down to even do work. This more likely stays a kickboxing affair and that leans heavily toward Holly as we cringe at the ass whooping Tate takes. Then the ladies plan to go to the same after party to share a beer. Stay classy ladies we love it!

WINNER-Holly Holm by Decision

THE ROUSEY HATER'S CLUB

Gian Villante (14-6) +160 vs. Ilir Latifi (11-4) -200

Villante has no chin, Villante has no chin. Chris Weidman's boy is an average at best boxer but he has a jaw o' glass. Latifi, properly nicknamed the "Sledgehammer" hits with murderous intention. Ilir is faster and far stronger than Gian who is going to be looking up at the lights before he even knows it.

WINNER-Ilir Latifi by Rd.1 KO

Corey Anderson (7-1) -300 vs. Tom Lawlor (10-5) +230

This is as close to a "sure thing" as you are going to get on this card. Lawlor has been cruising through the UFC taking massive time off just so he can say he's a UFC fighter though always on the verge of being cut from the roster. Tom is a sloppy grappler who sometimes throws a hard punch. He's that friend everyone has that thinks he's hilarious when he's actually super annoying. "Shockmaster" is a hard worker though so he's got that going for him.

Anderson is still green but he's been getting great experience in the Octagon and has only stumbled once in his young career. "Beastin 25/8 is a far, far better athlete and grappler than his moronic opponent. "Rampage 2.0" has started putting his boxing together and has just a ton of potential.

Corey is going to wrestle/box out Tom in every corner of this fight. The few things Lawler does well, Anderson does so much better. "Filthy" Tom is tough enough to meet the final bell but not before getting shutout by the beast.

WINNER-Corey Anderson by Decision

Amanda Nunes (11-4) -135 vs. Valentina Shevchenko (12-1) +105

The "Lioness" has been steadily improving her striking game while amassing a 4-1 in Zuffa. Of those bouts, all her wins were 1st round finishes and every win on her record has been a stoppage. The ATT fighter has the best power in the division and is a staunch kickboxer.

The "Bullet" is also a kickboxer but more refined. She possesses a technical ability honed by years of experience and has won 5 in a row. The Tiger Muay Thai fighter is slick on the ground as well having tapped 5 enemies in her career.

So this is a striker's war with technique versus power. Both women know how to throw down but the brawn is unmistakable for Nunes. The "Lioness" roars in an expected bad ass clash.

WINNER-Amanda Nunes by Rd.3 TKO

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:

Brandon Thatch (11-3) -300 vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (21-6-1) +230

Thatch had won 10 in a row before running into Benson Henderson who taught him a lesson and then Gunnar Nelson bested him in July. Now the long limbed "Ruckus" needs to get a win to put himself back in the running at Welterweight.  Brandon will use his long kicks and punches to attack from range.

The Blackzilian was last seen in December of '13, and has massive knockout power and a wealth of experience. Siyar can get a bit wild out there and the cardio has been lacking in the past.

Thatch is going to put it on Bahadurzada early and avoid that powerful shot that can end him. Once he survives the opening salvo, Brandon takes over punishing Siyar and pulling away on the cards.

WINNER-Brandon Thatch by Decision

Erick Silva (18-6) -225 vs. Nordine Taleb (11-3) +175

The Brazilian is an athletic machine who is coming into his prime and yet cannot maintain consistency in the UFC. Though people like to talk about Silva's power, its really his sneaky grappling and ability to snatch a submission that is impressive.

Taleb is the Tristar fighter who has a more focused and tends to make gains as the fight progresses. He is a giant Welterweight and has great, hard striking.

Anyone have faith in Erick at this point? The guy is wild and Taleb may be one to watch at 170 with his size and improvement at Tristar. We like Nordine to do more and frustrate the terrible fight IQ of Silva.

Upset Pick WINNER-Nordine Taleb by Decision

Vitor Miranda (11-4) -320 vs. Marcelo Guimaraes (9-1-1) +260

Team Nogueira's "Lex Luthor" is a former professional kickboxer who mixes his attack well and has solid takedown defense to make you stay in his world.

"Magrao" is a more Jiu-Jitsu based fighter and likely has trouble scoring enough points to contain but he survives to the final bell.

WINNER-Vitor Miranda by Decision

Darren Elkins (19-5) +135 vs. Chas Skelly (15-1) -155

Chas has been doing his thing winning 4 in a row with his very aggressive attack and overpowering assault. Skelly will wear a fool out and tap him with speed.

Elkins is the long tenured UFC veteran who you must defeat if you want to meet the Top 10 Featherweights. A wrestler who is the personification of the "gatekeeper."

Darren is not the guy you want to get into a grappler's brawl with. We like the old-timer to frustrate Skelly and steal one on the cards that the fans don't necessarily enjoy.

Upset Pick WINNER-Darren Elkins by Decision

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Diego Sanchez (25-8) +120 vs. Jim Miller (25-7, 1) -140

Two Lightweight warriors who have gone through the meat grinder of battles meet at the ass end of their careers. Both have been fan favorite soldiers who have each taken so much damage over the years that nobody knows how much they have left to give. Diego is known for his "yes!" war cry, fighting like a madman with reckless abandon, and being gifted undeserved decisions by blind judges. 

Miller is the more well rounded of the pair. Jim has standing elbows that are the stuff of nightmares and tight grappling that opens up submissions. 

This is going to be war early and then Jim will find the holes necessary to gain the win in a close and entertaining contest.

WINNER-Jim Miller by Decision

Jason Saggo (10-2) -210 vs. Justin Salas (12-6) +175

The Canadian Saggo disappeared from the UFC a couple of years ago but if he's healthy he can do everything well. Jason will best "J-Bomb" sooner rather than later in any number of ways. Salas will then be bounced from the roster. 

WINNER-Jason Saggo by Rd.2 Submission

Julian Erosa (15-2) -200 vs. Teruto Ishihara (7-2-2) +170

"Yashabo" is a crazy ass striker who has yet to prove himself at this level and is only 24 years young. 

"Juicy J" has rattled off 4 in a row but Julian isn't that tough of a fella.

Teruto gets cray, cray with it and starts the night off with a nice stoppage.

Upset Pick WINNER-Teruto Ishihara by Rd.1 TKO

UFC 196: dos Anjos vs. McGregor Start Times
Main Card on Pay-Per-View: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT

Preliminary Card on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT

Preliminary Card on UFC Fight Pass: 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT