UFC 199 Rockhold vs. Bisping 2: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

Main Card:

Middleweight Champion Luke Rockhold (15-2) -800 vs. Michael Bisping (28-7) +500 [Rematch]

The uncrowned Strikeforce Champion ;) has already made Rockhold quit a UFC Tonight interview and now looks to do the same Saturday for his 1st ever shot at a UFC title. Mike was called to step in on two weeks notice after the brittle Chris Weidman dropped out of a bout yet again. "The Count" knows his cardio isn't on point for the fight of his life, and he's said as much. Bisping has to catch Luke with something sneaky early.

* This is only the 2nd time Bisping has been granted another go in his career. The initial replay was in Mike's 5th professional fight back in 2004.

MMAFO told you back in 2012 that Luke was going to be a star and we predicted his dominance over Chris Weidman. We're not bailing out on the AKA fighter now. Rockhold has long reach and destructive body kicks via his left. That pushes opponents into his right hand and then if you hit the mat he pounces and submits.  

This is a bad match for Bisping in all aspects. Mike doesn't have the power to stall Luke and his cardio was always his trump card which he can't play here. Its going to be another rough night against Rockhold as Bisping just can't do the things necessary to survive this even with his legendary toughness and resolve. Luke finishes the Brit and does so releasing his anger on a man he really hates.

WINNER-Luke Rockhold by Rd.2 TKO

Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz (21-1) -550 vs. Urijah Faber (33-8) +375 [Trilogy]

"California, knows how to party." "The California Kid" is now 37 and staring down the barrel of his last opportunity for UFC gold. Faber bested Cruz in 1:38 back in the WEC but stumbled in a close rematch (via decision) in '11. The bad blood between these two men is as real as it gets and never before have we seen Urijah spit such venom at a foe. Even at his advanced age the Team Alpha Male founder is a potent striker, with great wrestling skills, the endurance of a 20 year old, a meticulous scrambler, and has a heart as golden as his luxurious locks (yeah MMAFO has a man-crush on Urijah, so what?). The man is a 1st ballot Hall of Famer and legend.

"Dancing" Dominick is a fucking prick. He's a sassy little bitch who runs like pussy cat with a singed tail. Look, there is no possible way the MMAFO staff can be unbiased in this bout. Cruz is a fucking insult to real fighters everywhere and he and his feminine voice can talk all the incoherent shit he wants, he's always going to be an asshole. 

MMAFO don't give a fuck! We refuse, refuse to side with the incumbent and hope he shatters his fragile knees in the Octagon. MMA Gods hear us now. Urijah Faber has to win this bout! He deserves it and with so little justice in the world today, it would go a long way to right the wrongs of the evil Hitler Cruz. Quite an impartial MMA  breakdown, eh?

Upset Pick WINNER-Urijah Faber by Rd.3 Submission

Max Holloway (15-3) -315 vs. Ricardo Lamas (16-4) +245

"Mad" Max has been on a tear since losing a decision to Conor McGregor. The Hawaiian 8 (!) straight with some of the most beautiful boxing skills in the game let alone the Featherweight division.

Lamas is a spoiler and do not sleep on his "Bully" game here. The problem is that Ricardo needs to slow this down on the ground and Max has some really strong takedown defense. If Holloway can keep this on the feet he'll nullify anything Lamas can do.

Max touches up Lamas to amass a large lead and if'n he does get taken down (unlikely), he's able to scramble to his feet most of the time. Should be a fun scrap but Holloway's skills trump Ricardo as Max plays the safe smart fighter.

WINNER-Max Holloway by Decision

Dan Henderson (31-14) +300 vs. Hector Lombard (34-5-1) -400

Jesus squeeze us, who sanctioned this fight? "Hendo" is just a shade under 70 and his chin has been broken for years now. The only hope Dan has in winning bouts these days is to catch a reckless kid coming in overconfident and landing his slo-motion "H-bomb." Hector is going to start slow as he tends to do, and then destroy Henderson in violent traumatizing fashion.

WINNER-Hector Lombard by Rd.1 KO

Bobby Green (23-6) +175 vs. Dustin Poirier (19-4) -225

"King" Bobby Green (1 of 3 King's on this card) returns after almost 2 years off due to family tragedies, a torn quad, lateral meniscus tear, and overwhelming rage due to all of these issues. Now Bobbo is back and has a 4-1 record to build upon. Green is a wrestler who wants to be a boxer.

"Diamond" has won 3 in a row since jumping up to the Lightweight division including Upsetting rolling Irishman Joseph Duffy last out. The ATT fighter has always been an impressive striker and grappler, but now he seems to have found an extra gear and more durability at his new home. 

Green is an odd cat but he doesn't have any kill attributes. Poirier does. Dustin has kicked into a new gear while Bobby will be trying to get re-aquainted with the Octagon. At the least, Poirier gets the judges nod if not the finish.

WINNER-Dustin Poirier by Decision

FOX Sports 1 Prelims:

Cole Miller (21-9) -190 vs. Alex Caceres (11-8) +155

BJ Penn was pulled off the card due to using an illegal IV after publicly stating last year, "IVs are for wimps," and "If you aren't sticking needles in your arm to fight the guy gets a 15 pound advantage." Penn's 17th "comeback" is back on hold like it matters.

Anywho, "Bruce Leeroy" steps in on very short notice showing BJ how a true warrior acts. The MMA Lab fighter has gone 6-6 during his Zuffa run but he's only 27 and has been showing improvements in spurts. Caceres is a crazy scrambler/grappler who throws a lot of karate attacks to his detriment. 

ATT's "Magrinho" is also a grappler more in the vein of a Jiu-Jitsu player. Miller is quite sturdy and had learned some vicious striking over the years. Cole knows how to get mean when necessary and will enjoy around a 2 inch height advantage.

Props to Alex for stepping up and taking an opportunity but he's out gunned here. Miller is pretty much better everywhere, has a smarter fight IQ, and looks for the kill. Cole catches Caceres slipping and elicits the tap.

WINNER-Cole Miller by Rd.2 Submission

Art by JUSTIN MCALLISTER

Clay Guida (32-16) +210 vs. Brian Ortega (10-0) -270

The beloved caveman "Carpenter" is a wild man and one of the most fun MMA fighters to ever blitzkrieg around a cage. The well (RV) traveled veteran is as aggressive as they come and metal as fuck!

"T-City" (awful nickname) is a 25 year old grappling guru fighting out of Black House. The "Surfing Black Belt" is a legit Jiu-Jitsu playa who taps almost everyone.

We loves us some Guida but old homie hasn't evolved in many years. Clay has also been quite susceptible to the submissions during his career falling to the art 8 times. Its not a good omen. Hopefully Guida can pull something out here but we've already prayed to the MMA Gods for this event on Urijah's behalf. Ortega will elicit a tap from top or bottom.

WINNER-Brian Ortega by Rd.1 Submission

Beneil Dariush (12-2) -190 vs. James Vick (9-0) +155

Dariush is one of MMAFO's "fighter's to watch" and we're not jumping off the bandwagon anytime soon. The King's MMA fighter has amassed an impressive 6-2 record under the UFC banner with calm in the cage and solid Jiu-Jitsu skills. Beneil's striking improves each time out as well.

Vick trains under an attempted rapist (it's true, look it up; Google Lloyd Irvin) and is an undefeated Jiu-Jitsu player. James is very tall for 155 at 6'3" and uses his range to tag and dash away frustrating his foes. 

The reach is a worry but Dariush is just so talented its hard to pick against him. This is going to take an on point game plan but Beneil should be able to thwart the youngster and get at the least 2 rounds in his favor.

WINNER-Beneil Dariush by Decision

jessicapenne (Instagram)

Jessica Penne (12-3) -155 vs. Jessica Andrade (13-5) +125

Penne showed just how much heart she has when she got abused by Joanna Jedrzejczyk in a bloody brutal loss last June. Jessica is a warrior.

The other Jessica is making her Strawweight debut after going 4-3 for Zuffa. "Bate Estaca" is a stocky Brazilian who has looked comfortable at her new weight class. 

Penne will have a nice size and reach advantage in this and her technique is better in every facet. Jessica will have to catch Jessica with something lucky or else Jessica will have her way with Jessica. Hope you got all that.

WINNER-Jessica Penne by Decision

UFC Fight Pass Prelims:

Tom Breese (10-0) -150 vs. Sean Strickland (17-1) +120

Tristar's Tommy is an absolutely terrifying monster! This 24 year old is a physical specimen with power to topple the Hoover dam. MMAFO is expecting a lot in the future from this Welterweight as he continues to improve under the tutelage of Firas Zahabi, but Breese is still quite green and if there is a time to take this kid out, your best shot is now.

Sean has a lot more experience but is only a single year older than his rival. Strickland has already built a 4-1 record in Zuffa  based on technique striking and some sneaky grappling skills. 

The mat work is really where the American should have the advantage. Keita Nakamura was able to ground Breese quite a bit in their meeting as Tom isn't quite putting together combination striking or employing unbreakable takedown defense. If Sean can get enough time on the ground he'll steal a couple of rounds and he can use his length to strike from a safe distance. We've got an Upset Pick against one of boys we believe to be a future star. Just not quite yet.

Upset Pick WINNER-Sean Strickland by Decision

Luiz Henrique da Silva (10-0) +175 vs. Jonathan Wilson (7-0) -225

The "0" must go in a Light Heavyweight showcase for some much needed new blood at 205.

"Frankenstein" is a striking Brazilian who has never met the judges.

"Johnny Bravo" Wilson will be more than happy to knuckle up in a throwdown. 

Dunno. Coin flip time!

Upset Pick WINNER-Luiz Henrique da Silva by Rd.3 TKO

Kevin Casey (9-4) +105 vs. Elvis Mutapcic (15-4) -135

Both of these cats claim to be the "King" of nicknames at the very least, yet nobody cares.

UFC, what do I have to do to get you to cut Casey from your roster? You're making slashes to your budget left and right and yet this half-a-trick pony is still employed. What gives? Anywho, Kevin is quick to quit in fights and has some of the worst cardio in the game today.

Elvis is a journeyman but he's at least average in all areas. 

Nobody gives a shit about this bout so flip a coin on the pick, and take a bathroom break when the bout is on.

WINNER-Elvis Mutapcic by Decision

Dong Hyun Kim (13-7-3) -110 vs. Marco Polo Reyes (5-2) -120

Nope, its the other Dong Hyun Kim fight fans. This is the guy that got slammed into unconsciousness during his (short notice) debut last November. The "Maestro" is a primarily a grappler who likes to finish. 

"El Toro" is from TUF: Latin America 2 where he lost in the semi-finals. Reyes has some power in his hands.

Its hard to imagine how this will go. Neither guy has proven a helluva lot yet in their respective careers and either could sneak in a finish here. We'll roll the dice for Marco just to out-power Kim but if he gets tapped we won't be shocked either.

WINNER-Marco Polo Reyes by Rd.2 TKO