Tuesday, May 24, 2016

UFC Fight Night 88 Almeida vs. Garbrandt: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds (updated)


Sunday, May 29, 2016
Mandalay Bay Event Center
Las Vegas, Nevada
Main Card on FOX Sports 1:
#7 Thomas Almeida (20-0) -160 vs. Cody Garbrandt (8-0) +130

"Thominhas" is a scary motherfucker. The bright spot for the once proud Chute Boxe squad has smashed through 20 fools while finishing all but 1. 1! That's 19 finishes including his last 3 foes of which none made it out of the 2nd round. The Brazilian is the slickest striker in the Bantamweight division today with a nice vicious streak.

Cody looks like a tough motherfucker with all his gory tattoos and has also finished all his opponents save 1. "No Love" hasn't faced as high anyone of note but Almeida's record is admittedly a bit padded as well. The Team Alpha Male boxer seems a bit saucy about Thomas and is looking to prove just who is the new kid to watch at 135. Garbrandt can actually counter punch more than he is given credit, but he'll be looking to test the somewhat questionable chin of Almeida with a big bomb for sure. 

Goddamn we've got the potential for a real war between two very promising young MMA fighters! When Cody comes out strong looking for the early knockout, he tends to leave himself a bit open and that's a good opportunity for Thomas to blitz him with one of his crazy combinations from hell. Both men should calm down a bit after the opening frenzy and then Almeida should slowly pull away as we believe his cardio will take over along with technique i.e. more weapons, while Cody fades with periods of inactivity before the final horn.

WINNER-Thomas Almeida by Decision

Renan Pegado (33-3) -200 vs. #10 Jeremy Stephens (24-12) +160


"The Baron" makes his Featherweight debut after capturing the Bantamweight crown during two year run. Sure, "Barao" could not get past his foil TJ Dillashaw, but Renan is a lightning quick striking specialist and Jiu-Jitsu black belt of high regard. Pegado reshaped his body and is looking quite svelte heading into his 145 premiere. 

The power punching Stephens has been near the top of his class but never quite able to break through to the upper echelon. "Lil' Heathen" is a brawler who employs staunch takedown defense with 16 (T)KO finishes on his resume.

Jeremy will need to land a big, clean punch that rattles Renan's brain to have much of a shot here. "Barao" is much, much faster and more credentialed everywhere. This bout plays out on the feet with "The Baron" touching Stephens up at will to make make a successful start in his new weight class.

WINNER-Renan Pegado by Decision

Tarec Saffiedine (16-4) -140 vs. Rick Story (18-8) +110


Going into fight week, it looked as if the oft injured Tarec was going to miss another bout due to unfortunate circumstances, but the "Sponge" was given a last minute pass for his skinned knee. True story. Anywho, the Saffiedine is a kickboxer with little finishing ability but a lot of good technique. The former Strikeforce Welterweight Champion has struggled to get a foothold in the 170's of the UFC due to inactivity, but Tarec is on the cusp of a title run if he can stay healthy.

"The Horror" was on a 2 fight bounce when he was forced to the bench with ankle, back, and neck injuries. The Zuffa veteran has amassed an 11-6 record in the promotion and has been looking to improve his skills at the MMA Lab. 

Though Rory MacDonald got the job done against Tarec, the Belgian is hard to finish and though a strong dude, Story isn't known to polish off opponents. This should be a kickboxing affair and Rick doesn't have the skills to contend with all that will be coming his way. Tarec uses the 8 points to amass enough points to sway the judges in the "battle of the returns."

WINNER-Tarec Saffiedine by Decision

Chris Camozzi (23-10) +185 vs. Vitor Miranda (12-4) -235


Camozzi is on his 3rd UFC run having won a couple in a row with hard boxing, general toughness, and horrible tattoos.

The Team Nogueira member found success in his last 3 outings after dropping his debut as so many do. Miranda is primarily a boxer but he can grapple if you put him there.

Despite "Chest Grenade" not being the most athletic fighter in the world, the guy does a lot of things right. If he finds the leg kicks present an opening for him, he'll wear you out all night. If there is a grappling advantage to be had, he'll use it without trying to box. Camozzi is a pretty tough guy and is able to adjust on the fly and use his fight IQ. Miranda tends to go where you take him so as long as Chris decides to keep him guessing, he could steal one here on points.

Upset Pick WINNER-Chris Camozzi by Decision

Jorge Masvidal (29-10) +115 vs. Lorenz Larkin (16-5) -145


"Gamebred" is 1-1 since being forced off the IV and moving up to Welterweight. The former YouTube street fighter has rounded out his skills quite well at ATT and is always a tough out.

"Double-L" came out blazing at 170 crushing in his 1st two appearances before losing a controversial Split Decision to Albert Tumenov last out. The "Monsoon" is an adept striker who seems stronger at his new weight and faster. 

This is an exciting fight. Both of these guys like to throw down and badly need the win to be a player before they leave the primes of their careers. We like Larkin here. He's faster, better, and sometimes Masvidal gets rather complacent out there and just doesn't compete. Lorenz stumbled in his last fight but should rebound here in a tough, character building fight that he needs to grow as a professional.

WINNER-Lorenz Larkin by Decision

Joshua Burkman (28-12, 1) +250 vs. Paul Felder (11-2) -305


1-2-1 for Josh on his return to the UFC. Burkman is washed up, old, and was never very good.

The "Irish Dragon" tough as they come and trains with the "Cowboy" Donald Cerrone. There's a couple of bad beats on his record but Felder brings a lot of power and skill in his stand-up and is going to wipe the floor with Josh. Paul finishes this nonsense before Burkman gets started.

WINNER-Paul Felder by Rd.1 TKO
SWIGGITY SWOOTY
Prelims on FOX Sports 1:
#7 Sara McMann (8-3) -155 vs. Jessica Eye (11-4, 1) +125

McMann is back and the question here, is will Sara's striking ever improve? The 1st ever female Olympic silver medalist in wrestling can grapple all day long, but her hands have not improved even a little, and she's now on the wrong side of 30. 

"Evil" Eye is a pretty solid boxer and an idiot. Seriously, read some of her Twitter posts and what manager is letting her do those without editing her? Anywho, Jessica can't do a damn thing off her back.

There's a lot of questions going into this one including, can Sara generate some semblance of offense? Both of these ladies need to impose their game in this classic wrestler versus striker match-up. Neither can do much in the other's realm but Eye can try to tag McMann up while keeping distance and avoiding the takedown like the plague. There have been bright spots of slight improvement in Jessica's game through the years while Sara has not evolved and has recently regressed in her development. We're not confident in our pick but the "Evil" Eye is set on the Upset.

Upset Pick WINNER-Jessica Eye by Decsion



Abel Trujillo (13-7) -300 vs. Jordan Rinaldi (12-4) +230


Seriously UFC, fire this piece of shit. Trujillo is a bad person and a one dimensional fighter.

Jordan is a grappler who is going to get knocked out "All Day." Dammit.

WINNER-Abel Trujillo by Rd.2 TKO

Jake Collier (9-3) +110 vs. Alberto Pereira (9-0) -140


"Uda" is Nova Uniao guy is making his debut for Zuffa. Alberto is a clinch specialist who delivers crunching knees but can take the fight about anywhere. Pereira is a finisher who will take chances to take you out.

Collier is one of those guys that okay but there is nothing he does really well. He might take a win here or there but, eh, nobody cares.

We're picking "Uda" in hopes that he'll help shake out some of the undeserving lads on the roster and his dynamism is something Jake prolly won't have an answer for.

WINNER-Alberto Pereira by Rd.2 TKO

Erik Koch (14-4) +145 vs. Shane Campbell (12-4) -175


The faux tanned Koch seemed like a guy to watch at Featherweight back in '11, but since he's gone 1-3 (granted to stiff competition) and been forced out of action for the last two years by injuries. Not a good sign. Erik may be a good kickboxer but his chin has failed him more than even the losses indicate.

The Canadian is also a kickboxer but competes more intelligently at range and will have a nice reach and size advantage.

There's just nothing special about Shane and we like the fire Erik tends to bring to carry him through. Koch has something to prove while Campbell just seems to meander through fights. The time off may even help the Roufusport fighters chin so we've found our 1st Upset of the night.

Upset Pick WINNER-Erik Koch by Decision
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

#6 Aljamain Sterling (12-0) -450 vs. Bryan Caraway (12-8) +325

"Al-Jo" has re-signed with the UFC and is promptly buried on the UFC Fight Pass. Nice work UFC. Idiots. Sterling is an unstoppable grappler but he continues to improve every time we see him and he's got some punches kids. The dude is entertaining as hell and if you don't follow him on social media, you are missing out. This kid "get's it."

"Mr. Tate" is not very liked within the MMA community and not for somehow being fortunate enough to date the lovely Champion Miesha Tate. Bryan likes to talk shit to people and then never back it up. Caraway is known for "bear poking" and then never accepting a damn fight which even UFC President Dana White has hinted at. Bry has also (rightly) been labeled a "dirty fighter" as he's been caught by the camera fish hooking Erik Perez and even elbowed female fighter Cat Zingano backstage. Despite all of this, Caraway is a pretty good submission fighter and tougher than people give him credit.

"Mr. Tate" can just go fuck himself and MMAFO is happy to be on the "hate wagon." The "Funk Master" is going to run game all over Caraway and should the stars align, will straight embarrass Bry. We got Aljamain Sterling all day here.

WINNER-Aljamain Sterling by dominant Decision

Chris de la Rocha (4-1) +195 vs. Adam Milstead (7-1) -250
Zack de la Rocha is the former lead singer/rapper of the band Rage Against the Machine. Zack... oh wait, who is Chris de la Rocha? Oh yes, he's the Heavyweight who lost his debut in 0:48. Gotcha. Moving on.

"The Prototype" is also a Heavyweight fighter and he is now making his big dance debut. Adam has finished everybody he's faced and none has even made it out of the 2nd round. Milstead hasn't fought any name of note but he isn't fighting anyone of note here either.

Adam stuffs a couple of takedown attempts and then bombs on Chris. Its just a matter of how good he looks here.

WINNER-Adam Milstead by Rd.1 TKO
UFC Fight Night 88 Start Times:
Main Card on FOX Sports 1: 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 7 p.m. ET/ 4 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT

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