UFC on Fox 22: VanZant vs. Waterson: Picks, Prognostications + Odds

December 17, 2016

Golden 1 Center

Sacramento, California

     MMAFO will not mince words here. This event is about one single thing. Urijah Faber. "The California Kid" (33-10) has been running game since 2003 when he began his professional MMA career at Gladiator Challenge in California, U.S.A. Ever since, the Team Alpha Male founder has been one of the most respected men in the sport taking MMA to new heights including raising the popularity of the "lighter" weight classes while attaining the Gladiator Challenge Bantamweight Championship, King of the Cage Bantamweight Championship, and the WEC Featherweight Championship. And after all this time, we will hear "California Love" to announce the arrival of Sacramento's favorite son one final time. Urijah Faber has announced that his 44th MMA bout will be his last. "The California Kid" will retire in his hometown and we will say goodbye to a 1st ballot Hall of Famer and one of the greatest Mixed Martial Artists of all time!

Urijah Faber (33-10) -440 vs. Brad Pickett (25-12) +350

We've lauded praise upon our beloved golden God but now we take an honest look at this matchup. In the last two years, Faber has gone 1-3 but the man has not been finished since Mike Thomas Brown in 2008 (yes, we know about the rematch with Renan Pegado but that was a bullshit stoppage and everyone including Herb Dean knows it). Urijah may not be in his prime at 37, but the guy still has some amazing scrambling and grappling skills. The submissions are well "The California Kid" excels but he has decent hands as well.

The "Pikey" is another battle tested veteran who has a similar record in the last few years. Things haven't been great for Pickett including getting soul crushed by Thomas Almeida and  putting himself in precarious positions that have resulted in some tap losses as well. "One Punch" is a bit of a misnomer as he prefers a ground tussle as well.

When it comes down to it, the MMA Gods are not cruel enough to ruin Faber's retirement party (please oh great and powerful MMA Gods, don't ruin Faber's retirement party). This is the type of matchup where Urijah has always excelled. The "Alpha Male" is a better grappler and should be able to rise to the occasion as the Sacramento crowd cheers him on to new levels of brilliance as MMAFO weeps after the post fight interview. 

WINNER-Urijah Faber by Decision

Underwear selfie battle!

Paige VanZant (7-2) -110 vs. Michelle Waterson (13-4) -110

Let us not pretend this isn't two of the hottest gals in all of MMA that just happened to be paired together in a bout that is going to have male and female fans drooling in hopes of a triangle choke or an extended north-south positioning. 

"12 Gauge" got back in the win column blasting Bec Rawlings out of the Octagon with a nice switch kick knockout. The Team Alpha Male lady is as aggressive as they come and never ever gets tired in the cage. The 22 year old is a good (not great) wrestler who uses tenacity and heart to get the job done.

The "Karate Hottie" is a former Invicta FC champ and is a far better striker than her blonde counterpart, but she lacks any power as do most Atomweights. That is also an issue as Waterson is more suited for 105 than 125. Michelle has some Jiu-Jitsu chops and much more experience.

This seems like a pretty close contest on paper but Waterson struggles with takedown defense which is how VanZant is likely to approach meeting. Michelle is also vulnerable to pugnacious attacks which keep her on the back foot and has been very inactive in her career having a child and dealing with multiple injuries. We see "12 Gauge" Paige pressing and frustrating the "Karate Hottie" keeping her from getting any real notable offense going and pitching a shutout on the cards.

Then maybe the ladies can hug and kiss out their differences post fight (sexist much? sorry, we can't resist).

WINNER-Paige VanZant by Decision

Sage Northcutt (8-1) +100 vs. Mickey Gall (3-0) -120

The UFC's young pretty boys are full of potential and hair gel but this is a serious contest and will be treated as such.

The spikey lil' faux tanned christian is a corny as Iowa and too saccharin to be real. Northcutt is a karate based fighter who is a natural athlete with deadly speed and surprising flexibility for his muscled and sexy frame. 

Mickey always says he will, but it always means he won't. Yet, he's so fine that he tends to blow our minds. Ya Know? Gall is basically making his professional debut since he has faced nobodies and soccer dads. Even so, Mickey has shown us in our sneaky research that he is an underrated grappler with a nose for submissions. He hasn't used his striking much yet but when he does, he's shown some real power and precision.

Grappler versus striker and the striker is just goddamn awful on the mats. That should tell you what you need to know. Gall may not have a lot of experience, but he's got the skill needed to vanquish the rudimentary skills of Northcutt. We've seen "Super" Sage exposed before and believe there is actually something to this prospect.

WINNER-Mickey Gall by Rd.2 Submission

Alan Jouban (14-4) +110 vs. Mike Perry (9-0) -130

Ferocity abounds as these two warriors collide in a symphony of violence!

"Brahma" has been one of our "boys" since he joined the UFC and has garnered a 5-2 record. For a "pretty boy," Jouban don't give a fuck going inside the cage and attacking with ferocity and a disregard for his own safety.

"Platinum" Perry has burst onto the scene and become a fan favorite, or rather a joke that Mike doesn't understand. Most people are laughing at his "bro" antics but he has finished all of his opponents with strikes. Let us not forget to mention he has face tattoos, has posted racist statements on Twitter, and is basically a douche bag. These things need to be pointed out.

We have no love or respect for Mickey but his record does speak for itself. The guy loves the battle but has yet to be really tested. Alan will do so and we think will do so in dramatic fashion. Jouban is technically better, and though he lacks the power of Perry, he has more all around game and it won't take much to outsmart the Floridian. We're calling Upset here with the Brazilian using the clinch and a more varied array of offensive attacks to properly welcome this ego maniac back to reality.

Upset Pick WINNER-Alan Jouban by Rd.2 TKO

Bryan Barberena (12-3) +300 vs. Colby Covington (10-1) -360

The "Hype Killer" is back and has targeted ATT's Covington as his next victim. Bryan already took the rose off Sage Northcutt and Warlley Alves using his suffocating grappling skills and submission game. "Bam 2x" is a grinder though a bit undersized for the division.

CC isn't the most entertaining guy to watch but he's got the wrestling game on lock. Colby takes you down, rinses, and repeats. Covington doesn't dick around on the feet and is superior to Barberena in his own area of expertise. It won't be pretty, and it won't be fun, but it will be dominant.

WINNER-Colby Covington by Decision

Takeya Mizugaki (21-10-2) +185 vs. Eddie Wineland (22-11-1) -225

Two time honored veterans are meeting to try and retain some revelance in the Bantamweight division.

The "Miz" has struggled recently losing 3 of his last 4 but consider these were to Dominick Cruz, Aljamain Sterling, and Cody Garbrandt. Takeya has the heart of the Samurai but sometimes lacks the offense to contend.

The former WEC champ has been through a lot of wars and has gone 2-2 since losing his UFC title shot. Wineland is a good striker with rare power at 135's and when he is confident using feints and striking in high numbers, he's tough to beat.

This is a tough call. We like both men but Mizugaki just doesn't have the offense to keep opponents honest or fearful. Ed can sprawl well and then use his verticality to touch up Tak and put him away as the Japanese fighter has wained in his once durable nature.

WINNER-Eddie Wineland by Rd.1 TKO

James Moontasri (9-4) -105 vs. Alex Morono (12-3) -115

The "Moonwalker" is as fun as he is out of control and living on a prayer out there. James likes to take risks likely because he has never rounded out his game. 

Alex "The Moron" did not defeat Kyle Noke in his debut no matter what the idiotic judges said. "The Great White" is an aggressive finisher though and he'll be happy to go crazy out there as well.

This should be really fun as neither guy is going to hold back while getting dangerous. Moontasri makes more mistakes though and Morono should have his pick of errors to capitalize upon.

Upset Pick WINNER-Alex Morono by Rd.1 TKO

Josh Emmett (10-0) -180 vs. Scott Holtzman (9-1) +160

The newest Team Alpha Male to enter the UFC is on a roll but he hasn't been fully tested as of yet. He's "Mini Monson The Snow Baby." The guy fights, and resembles a smaller version of Jeff Monson.

"Hot Sauce" is 2-1 in the UFC and fights out of the MMA Lab. 

Eh, I mean, eh. Maybe Emmett will get the hometown lift and he can at least out wrestle Hotlzman.

WINNER-Josh Emmett by Decision

Sultan Aliev (13-2) +135 vs. Bojan Velickovic (14-3-1) -155

Now that Gabriel Gonzaga is gone, the Sultan is the hairiest motherfucker in all the UFC land. The Sultan of swing is conveniently a striker with older "dad strength" but he isn't very fluid. Still, his finishes speak for themselves. 

"Serbian Steel" is a Jiu-Jitsu fighter and the "prospect" who is supposed to win this engagement. 

WINNER-Bojan Velickovic by Decision

Paul Craig (8-0) +185 vs. Luis Henrique da Silva (12-0) -225

"Frankentstein" has surprised us with how effective he has been in the Octagon so far. LHdS can bang or submit deftly and though he's been wounded in both of is UFC appearances, the guy simply guts it out for a dramatic finish.

The "Bearjew" from Scotland is less tested but undefeated as well which is nice. Craig likes to get into scrambles forcing a mistake and taking a submission home. He is a wild striker and pretty entertaining.

The defining factor is how easily it is to hit Paul who has definitely not developed his boxing. He'll struggle to get going and before he has the chance da Silva will pound him out.

WINNER-Luis Henrique da Silva by Rd.2 TKO

Fredy Serrano (3-1) +105 vs. Hector Sandoval (12-3) -125

Fredy should not be here. Should not. He's not ready for this level.

Sandy came in and ran into the top contender Wilson Reis for an unfavorable induction to the UFC. Hector will try to murder you with every punch and should be able to avoid the ground with his Team Alpha Male training while touching up Serrano.

WINNER-Hector Sandoval by Rd.3 TKO

Cole Miller (21-10) -105 vs. Mizuto Hirota (17-7-2) -115

Cole Miller is an angry man and he has every right to be. Miller is sick and tired of the mistreatment of fighters by the UFC and their inability to even take a meeting with him.  Understandable, but Cole sounds burnt out and has publicly stated he had a rough camp he's looked really bad in recent outings.

0-2-1 for Hirota isn't very impressive. "Pugnus" is tough though and has only been finished by Shinya Aoki who could submit Jesus but he doesn't set the world on fire anywhere.

Nobody knows how Cole is going to roll into this fight but he is the better fighter and perhaps he's looking to "stick it to the man" and prove a point here. A win and thus a chance to get on the mic and put the UFC brass on blast is a motivator. Miller wins by default.

WINNER-Cole Miller by Decision

irenealdanar (Instagram)

Irene Aldana (7-2) -310 vs. Leslie Smith (8-7-1) +255

"The Peacemaker" which is an odd nickname for a fighter, is a grizzled veteran who takes on all comers with her determination over skill. The boxing is just plain bad, and she needs to ground opponents. 

Aldana is the new girl on the block with some impressive striking and is a natural athlete. 

This is one of those vet on the way down meeting a prospect on the come up. Smith's time has passed but perhaps she can find new life in the burgeoning women's Featherweight division which is now officially on the horizon. 

WINNER-Irene Aldana by Decision

Bellator 169

Muhammed Lawal (19-5) vs Satoshi Ishii (14-6-1)

"King Mo" continues to fail when reaching for the sky but this is the type of cat he excels in frustrating. Lawal likes to keep active and Bellator continues to decide to put on tiny unimportant cards so here we are.

Ishii has never been able to adjust successfully to MMA. Ya gotta love the guy for trying and all but he's just not that good.

"King Mo" all day everyday here.

WINNER-Muhammed Lawal by Rd.3 TKO