March 11, 2017
Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
Fortaleza, Brazil
Brasil, Brasil, where UFC cards go to die. It's honestly not as bad as we make it out. There is a grudge Rematch between the "Dirty Bird" and the "Brazilian Cowboy" picking up where their no contest concluded last December. "Shogun" is trying to put together a 3+ winning streak for the 1st time since 2007, and Barboza versus Dariush should be epic! There will be a lot of decisions on this card so if you're not in it for the long haul, this may not be your jam.
Main Card on FS1:
Vitor Belfort (25-13) +340 vs. Kelvin Gastelum (13-2) -425
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| https://www.instagram.com/kgastelum/?hl=en |
Having been forced to move up a division due to multiple weight cut failures, Kelvin has looked amazing and is perhaps finding his way. At only 25, Gastelum seems to be bulking up well on his Instagram account, and these changes and a more professional approach, could spell trouble for all Middleweights going forward. Kelvin is a great scrambler and his striking has improved quickly as he has grown more comfortable in the cage. The kids wrestling and subs are on point and he isn't even in his prime yet. Training at King's MMA with Rafael Cordeiro will only up his game.
"The Old Dinosaur," is well past his prime, and without the aid of TRT or whatever PED's he was formally injecting into his body, he's become a shell of his former self. The notorious cheater has gone 1-3 in the last few years as his body went from a body builder frame to "dad bod" in dramatic fashion. Basically, this fraud ain't shit without his needles and potions.
MMAFO isn't even trying to hide our disdain for this christian claiming, villain in action, piece of human garbage. We all know Vitor is trouble for about a minute, and then he mentally gives up as his physical body fails him. We don't see Kelvin having much trouble here as he silences the Brazil crowd with a rout over their hero.
WINNER-Kelvin Gastelum by Rd.2 Submission
Mauricio Rua (24-10) -140 vs. Gian Villante (15-7) +120
Don’t shovel dirt onto Rua just yet. The oft injured veteran has won a couple in a row and power is the last thing to go. "Shogun" is a true warrior who has suffered through some of the worst luck of any MMA fighter, and still continues to fight back. The vaunted striker isn't going to contend with the elite anymore, but he does have his pride (especially in Brazil), and his opponent is certainly not elite.
Villante is a kickboxer and not much else. He's chinny as hell and has had cardio issues in multiple fights.
"Shogun" should be able to win this bout provided he doesn't catch an "H-Bomb" on the chin from Dan Henderson jumping into the cage pro wrestling style. Rua is better everywhere (and don't be surprised when he works in the takedowns with ease) and Gian is a below average fighter.
WINNER-Mauricio Rua by Rd.2 TKO
#7 Edson Barboza (18-4) -140 vs. #9 Beneil Dariush (14-2) +120
This is an intriguing bout. Both of these 155ers are on the come up and looking to stay in the hunt for a future title shot.
"Barbie" has elevated himself dusting off Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis in his last outings. It seems like Edson has finally found a way to use is impressive kickboxing while protecting his fragile jaw to surpass the elite of the division who formally held him down.
There have been a couple of stumbles along the way for Dariush as well, but training at King's MMA with legendary coach "Mestre" Corderio continues to yield improvement and confidence. Ben's Jiu-Jitsu is always impressive and his striking is catching up as well. Dude has determination for days and brings the thunder.
MMAFO is very high on Dariush but this match does not favor him. Beneil's going to be much smaller than Edson and the length advantage really plays into Barboza's kickboxing. We want, want, want, Dariush to get this to the ground and win, but Ed has stalwart takedown defense allowing for his devastating fists and feet. (sigh) Edson will catch Beneil coming in multiple times and if he doesn't finish Dariush, will look good on the cards.
WINNER-Edson Barboza by Decision
#4 Jussier da Silva (19-4) -105 vs. Ray Borg (10-2) -115
Flyweight fireworks as "Formiga" meets the "Tazmexican Devil" to take steps toward the belt and an eventual loss to "Mighty Mouse."
Jussier is always going to win bronze, which is nothing to sneeze at, but he won't win the gold. A level above contender but not a champion. "Formiga" is a great grappler and knows how to control the Octagon and make you fight his game.
Borg has shown improvement in his striking thanks to the Jackson-Wink camp and will likely throw 1st allowing da Silva to counter which he enjoys. Ray wants to grapple and these men could cancel each other out on the canvas.
"Formiga" is the safe bet here as he has more experience at a higher level, and more finishing ability. Jussier is tough to takedown and if this becomes a kickboxing match, da Silva's got the advantage. Should be a fantastic fight!
WINNER-Jussier da Silva by Decision
#9 Bethe Correia (10-2) +100 vs. Marion Reneau (7-3) -120
Ya gotta love the heart of the 39 year old Reneau, but time's a ticking away and she's going to be outgunned against the Correia. Bethe is a dawg out there and will be coming and bombing with abandon. Marion just doesn't have the offense to make her pay for her aggression.
Upset Pick WINNER-Bethe Correia by Decision
Alex Oliveira (16-3-1) +190 vs. Tim Means (26-7-1) -230 [Rematch]
This is gonna be a fun one. There is much bad blood here after their initial meeting caused confusion and controversy. Means was fucking up Oliveira when he threw an illegal knee, not realizing his opponent was considered "grounded" by the rules because he had a knee down. Alex then put on one of the worst acting performances of all time feigning injury and pretending he could not longer stand without aid. It was so bad and fooled nobody as he instantly became a pariah to MMA fans and mocked on the Internet. Even Ray Charles could see it was an act and he's fucking dead.
The "Brazilian Cowboy" has lost all the love he had after badly missing weight against Will Brooks, being disrespectful when Will became injured, and the poor acting against Means. Fuck this guy! The "Dirty Bird" is going to pick up right where he left off, bloodying Alex before dispatching him with prejudice. Bet.
WINNER-Tim Means by Rd.2 TKO
Prelims on FS1:
Francisco Trinaldo (21-4) +140 vs. Kevin Lee (14-2) -160
Oh the universally hated and outspoken Mr. Lee. The confident young man (7-2/UFC) is known for his boxing but he gets in under the hips and has some really nice takedowns showing a good mix of offense to keep opponents guessing.
Trinaldo is a good, not great, come forward brawling kickboxer who is 38 years old. "Massaranduba" has won 7, 7 in a row (!) at the ultra-competitive Lightweight division and has faced a notch higher level of competition than Lee.
We would not be surprised if Kevin maintained distance and discipline allowing him to get the win here. However, we have to side with the veteran because he does have the power to knockout Lee, and if they are going to the likely decision, Franny can look better in front of the judges. This is a very close interesting match and either man could come out on top.
Upset Pick WINNER-Francisco Trinaldo by Decision
Sergio Moraes (11-2-1) -245 vs. Davi Ramos (6-1) +205
The "Smiling Panther" is on a groove winning his last 5 (ignoring the split draw) and learning to use his length to jab. Moraes is known for his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but he seems to want to play to the crowd opting for a throwdown rather than a smart game plan.
Davi gets called up after a Max Griffin injury and will have a significant reach disadvantage. The Team Nogueira fighter is stepping up a weight class as well so there's a lot going against him including the late notice.
Ramos needs to show us something before we can side with him. Moraes is also just such a good guy that we just cheer for him. Experience and size rule the day.
WINNER-Sergio Moraes by Decision
Rani Yahya (23-8, 1) -190 vs. Joe Soto (17-5) +165
Rani Ya, Ya, Ya, Ya, Ya, (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=us8OhI-OTHg) is a Jiu-Jitsu expert in the way of Demian Maia and the like. He's been rolling winning 4 in a row, and though he gasses in bouts, the Constrictor is pretty dependable to frustrate foes and keep the fight in his world.
Soto is trying to rebuild his career after joining the UFC and promptly losing his 1st 3. Now, having won back to back fights for the 1st time in 3 years, he's looking to get his mojo rolling. Joe can play the ground game as well, but would be smart to avoid that strategy against such an acclaimed grappler, and use his boxing which is much, much better that Rani's rudimentary at best striking.
This is a tough one to call as both men have their glaring faults, but are also very tough, but Rani is much more reliable. We just don't feel comfortable picking Joe knowing how inconsistent he's been. Keep in mind this contest could go either way and is nothing to bet on.
WINNER-Rani Yahya by Decision
Michel Prazeres (21-2) -255 vs. Josh Burkman (28-14, 1) +215
Jesus tap dancing Christ, why won't Burkman just go away? C'mon UFC, stop letting this never was cash checks and open the roster spot for someone deserving. Josh is 38, and has gone 1-4-1 in his return to the company.
"Trator" (5-2 in the UFC) is a big ol' powerful brute who has really only struggled against quick fighters which Josh is not! Michelle (sic) will do the work necessary to win a decision and send Josh packing to retirement.
Also MMAFO rule #18, never pick a guy with a tramp stamp.
WINNER-Michel Prazeres by Decision
Rony Bezerra (14-6, 1) -105 vs. Jeremy Kennedy (9-0) -115
Rony "Jason" had all the hype in the world coming into the UFC as a Brazilian fan favorite. The rose is off that bloom after winning his 1st 3, he's gone 1-3-1 including failing a PED test. Bezerra is quick and aggressive, looking to take you down and do damage to open up a submission. He's a Jiu-Jitsu player because its tattooed on his back in large ugly letters.
The 24 year old Canadian has not beaten anybody of note and why he's been added to the MMA roster is a mystery to us all. This guy needs way more seasoning. He's got wrestling but not much else.
Rony "Jason" has peaked but he's still a "prospect" eliminator. Dude is tough as nails and does have some game.
WINNER-Rony Bezerra by Decision
Garreth McLellan (13-5) +250 vs. Paulo Costa (8-0) -300
"Soilder Boy" has gone 1-3 in his UFC stint and though he gives a good effort, he just isn't that good.
"Borrachinha" is getting his promotional debut coming over with a bloated record as does every Jungle Fight alum. Costa should still be able to win at least 2 of 3 rounds in a close bout. This feels like a fight set up to eliminate McLellan from the roster.
WINNER-Paulo Costa by Decision
Kyle Bochniak (7-1) vs. Godofredo Pepey (13-4) CANCELED
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